Fitch Solution, a renowned United Kingdom-based research and data firm, is forecasting electoral success for National Democratic Congress (NDC) flagbearer John Dramani Mahama in Ghana’s upcoming December 7 presidential election.
The prediction is grounded in Fitch’s latest publication on election and risk-related issues in Africa, where they asserted that the current state of the economy will significantly influence voters’ choices.
In a webinar announcing the findings of their research, Senior Sub-Saharan Africa Country Risk Analyst Mike Kruiniger highlighted their expectation of policy continuity in the region, with most incumbents likely to secure victories and retain their majorities.
However, Fitch Solutions pointed to notable exceptions in key markets, specifically mentioning South Africa and Ghana.
“In Ghana likewise, we believe anger over living standards is giving opposition candidate John Mahama a lead in the polls. This marks a shift away from the incumbent’s preferred successor, that being current Vice President Bawumia”
Mike Kruiniger
Furthermore, the Fitch Solution research suggested that, despite the overarching trend of policy continuity, some crucial changes are anticipated, particularly in Ghana. The prediction aligns with recent polling data that places John Mahama ahead of Vice President and the New Patriotic Party flagbearer Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia.
Mike Kruiniger acknowledged the challenges faced by the ruling New Patriotic Party and pointed to the government’s commitment to fiscal reforms in the 2024 budget.
However, Fitch Solutions anticipates significant public expenditure overruns leading up to the December election, especially considering the New Patriotic Party’s trailing position in the polls.
“Since the start of the century, public expenditure as a share of GDP increased by an average of three percentage points during election years. And I think that reflects the government’s tendency to subsidize utilities or implement social welfare programs to garner public support in the run-up to general elections”
Mike Kruiniger
While warning of potential instability in the sub-region due to insurgent activities in Burkina Faso and Mali, Fitch Solutions remains firm in its prediction of a National Democratic Congress victory in Ghana’s December general elections.
Mr Kruiniger emphasized that their core view is that the National Democratic Congress is best positioned to secure a victory based on polling data, particularly as economic issues take center stage for voters.
“The economy and economic management will be central issues for voters during the election. This is expected to provide the NDC with an advantage, considering that the recent economic downturn occurred under NPP leadership”.
Mike Kruiniger
Despite the optimistic forecast for the National Democratic Congress, Fitch Solutions cautioned about potential instability in the West African sub-region, citing the activities of insurgents in Burkina Faso and Mali.
According to Fitch Solutions, the removal of the United Nations peacekeeping forces from Mali in 2024 is anticipated to create a power vacuum, with militant groups likely to compete for influence, potentially impacting neighbouring countries like Ghana.
“In 2024, West Africa will be an important monitoring point for security risks,” concluded the Senior Sub-Saharan Africa Country Risk Analyst for Fitch Solutions. As the 2024 elections draw nearer, the intersection of economic concerns, political dynamics, and security risks is expected to shape the narrative leading up to the polls.
Mike Kruiniger
