Top polling expert Sir John Curtice has issued a stark warning to the Conservatives in the wake of their double by-election loss, declaring that the party is facing “deep, deep electoral trouble.”
Sir John noted that while the 21-point decline in Kingswood aligns with the party’s current struggles in opinion polls, it is the Wellingborough outcome, with a 37-38 point swing, that stands out as “the biggest Tory loss the Conservatives have ever managed to suffer in a post-war by-election”.
The pollster said, “this morning, we are still looking at a government that, at the moment, is staring defeat in the face”.
“Now, it may well be that the circumstances surrounding Peter Bone’s downfall and his replacement by his partner perhaps added to the lead party’s woes in Wellingborough, but there is no gainsaying the fact that this morning we are still looking at a government that, at the moment, is staring defeat in the face of the next general election.”
Sir John Curtice
Following an inquiry, Mr. Bone was suspended from the House of Commons for six weeks due to findings of bullying and sexual misconduct by him toward a staff member.
The Conservatives experienced a dual blow in the recent by-elections, with Labour overturning significant Tory majorities in Kingswood and Wellingborough.
These consecutive defeats intensified the pressure on Rishi Sunak, especially since Reform UK, a right-wing challenger party, delivered strong performances in both constituencies. This is likely to embolden critics within the party regarding the prime minister’s leadership direction.
These results come on the heels of official figures revealing that Britain has entered into a recession. Economic growth stalled, with gross domestic product (GDP) falling by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, following a 0.1 percent decline in the previous three months.
Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, a former business secretary and Conservative member, stressed the importance of the Conservative Party learning from the outcome of the Kingswood election.
He said: “Conservative Party votes are most likely to come from people who stay at home or who voted Reform.”
He suggested the party cut taxes, pull back from net zero measures and “take more of the advantages of Brexit”.
Disenchanted Conservative Voters And The Rise Of Reform UK
Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden has said both by-election results were “very disappointing”.
Mr Holden said, “Very disappointing results – no need to shy away from that – in both Kingswood and Wellingborough.
“I think one of the most disappointing things for me though is the turnout in the by-elections was so significantly down compared to the previous general elections in both seats. I want to see people actively participating in democracy. I think that shows we’ve got a lot to do to get people out there and enthused to vote again, and probably the Opposition have a similar challenge.”
Conservative Party chairman, Richard Holden
Holden added, “I think we’ve got to look at both these by-elections in the context in which they happened as well.
“We had an MP in Kingswood who stood down and also obviously in Wellingborough we had a parliamentary investigation, which led to a recall petition which led to an MP being forced to stand down. Not ideal circumstances for any form of by-election for any party.”
Conservative Party chairman, Richard Holden
The anti-EU, anti-immigration Reform UK party achieved its best-ever by-election performances, securing 13% of the vote in Wellingborough and 10% in Kingswood.
Polls indicate that most of Reform UK’s support comes from disenchanted Conservative voters. The determination of Reform’s leader, Richard Tice, to contest all Tory-held seats poses a potential threat to the Conservatives.
READ ALSO: Labour’s Big Win In Kingswood By-Elections
