A comprehensive cross-tab report from Global InfoAnalytics has revealed a significant shift in voter preferences, positioning the National Democratic Congress (NDC) to secure a majority in the next parliament.
The report, based on data collected in the December 2020 national poll, unveils key trends that shed light on the dynamics leading to the projected outcome.
“In the December 2020 national poll, voters who asked which party candidate they intend to vote for in the 2024 parliamentary elections. Voters were also asked which party’s parliamentary candidate they voted for in the 2020 elections.
“A cross-tab report produced below shows what has happened, leading to NDC currently being projected to have a majority in the next parliament”.
Global InfoAnalytics
According to the report, 52 percent of voters expressed their intention to vote for National Democratic Congress parliamentary candidates, slightly trailing 53.2 percent in favor of former President John Dramani Mahama, the party’s presidential candidate.
In contrast, the report revealed that 31 percent of voters plan to support the New Patriotic Party (NPP) parliamentary candidates, with 29.6 percent backing Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia.
Furthermore, a deeper analysis of the report revealed intriguing patterns in voter loyalty and shifts, in which almost 91 percent of those who voted for the National Democratic Congress in the 2020 elections expressed unwavering support for the party’s candidates in 2024.
However, the report also revealed that only 62 percent of those who voted for the New Patriotic Party candidates in 2020 are committed to supporting the party’s candidates in the upcoming elections.
According to the report, its findings suggest a significant erosion of support for the ruling New Patriotic Party.
Unity In NDC, A Panacea For Its Victory
Moreover, the data from the Global InfoAnalytics report indicated a high level of unity within the National Democratic Congress, as the majority of its 2020 voters remain steadfast in supporting the party.
Again, the report highlighted that 40 percent of those who did not vote in 2020 expressed an inclination to vote for National Democratic Congress candidates in 2024, signaling a potential surge in support for the opposition party.
However, according to the report, a substantial portion of the New Patriotic Party voters appear dissatisfied, with 18 percent indicating a shift towards National Democratic Congress candidates.
In addition, the report delved into regional dynamics, focusing on the Greater Accra and Ashanti regions, where in Greater Accra, 61 percent of voters intend to vote for National Democratic Congress candidates compared to 23 percent for New Patriotic Party candidates.
Notably, 22 percent of New Patriotic Party voters who supported the party’s candidates in 2020 have switched allegiance to National Democratic Congress candidates while conversely, only 6 percent of National Democratic Congress voters plan to vote for New Patriotic Party candidates, underlining a significant tilt toward the National Democratic Congress in this critical region.
In the Ashanti region, the report revealed a challenging landscape for the New Patriotic Party, with 38% of voters intending to vote for National Democratic Congress candidates compared to 43 percent for New Patriotic Party candidates.
Notably, the report further revealed that almost 93 percent of those who voted for National Democratic Congress candidates in 2020 plan to do the same in 2024, while only 67 percent of New Patriotic Party voters express similar loyalty.
The report noted that the Ashanti Region also presented an interesting dynamic among first-time voters, with 35 percent favoring National Democratic Congress parliamentary candidates compared to 30 percent supporting New Patriotic Party candidates.
The report also raised questions about the impact of recent primary results, where 28 sitting members of parliament lost their chance to represent the New Patriotic Party.
The Global InfoAnalytics report painted a compelling picture of shifting voter preferences, indicating a strong likelihood of the National Democratic Congress securing a majority in the upcoming parliamentary elections.
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