As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine unfolds, the global community is coming to terms with the realization that, despite the well-intentioned imposition of sanctions, detering Russia from its aggressive actions and to bring about a resolution to the conflict is proving to be like attempting to draw blood from a turnip.
For those unfamiliar with the agricultural wisdom encapsulated in this idiom, let me spell it out- it’s a task more daunting than convincing a cat to take a swim.
The economic resilience displayed by Moscow resembles a stubborn turnip, seemingly impervious to the relentless attempts to extract concessions.
The measures, ostensibly crafted to hit Russia where it hurts, have become flies that Russia just brushes off and drawing a drop of remorse from the stone-faced Russian leadership has proven elusive.
It seems that for every economic blow delivered, Russia has managed to pivot, finding sustenance from alternative trade partners and leaving the international community to ponder the limitations of their chosen strategy.
In December, the U.S treasury department said that Russia’s economy had been hit by the sanctions, contracting by 2.1% in 2022.
Nonetheless, Russia’s economy has performed above expectations, with the International Monetary Fund in January forecasting 2.6% GDP growth for 2024 – a 1.5 percentage point upgrade from an October estimate – after solid 3.0% growth in 2023.
IMF Spokesperson, Julie Kozack said on Thursday that it was “clear that Russia is now in a war economy”, with military expenditures boosting weapons production, government social transfers propping up consumption and inflation that is rising, despite declines elsewhere.
Deputy U.S Treasury Secretary, Wally Adeyemo disclosed that the U.S is poised to impose sanctions on more than 500 targets on Friday, February 23, 2024.
The action, taken in partnership with other countries, will target Russia’s military industrial complex and companies in third countries that facilitate Russia’s access to goods it wants, as Washington seeks to hold Russia to account over the war and the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
A Treasury Department spokesperson called the “largest single tranche since the start of (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s further invasion of Ukraine.”
The US Justice Department on Thursday also announced a sweeping set of criminal and civil enforcement actions targeting sanctioned Russian oligarchs and others accused of working to support the Kremlin and its military.
Russia has been accused of evading sanctions.
A report by B4Ukraine – a coalition of more than 80 civil society groups, stated that The Kremlin has used loopholes and a “shadow fleet” of tankers to bypass an oil embargo by the US, EU and G7 nations.
According to the report, Russia has earned $653bn from the sale of fossil fuels, since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, despite western sanctions.
The coalition called on western governments in 2024 to close down loopholes and to strengthen sanctions.
About 358 multinational companies exited from the Russian market in the wake of Vladimir Putin’s 2022 invasion. But 2138 corporations continue to operate in Russia. They have paid $40bn in taxes – cash used by the state to fund its war economy, the report says.
Natliia Popovych, B4Ukraine’s Co-founder said, “The flow of Russia’s fossil fuel revenue combined with corporate taxes paid by foreign companies and the supply of western military tech explain Russia’s ability to continue to wage war and further militarise.”
“Closing the existing sanctions loopholes and issuing guidance on the risks of remaining in Russia for the non-sanctioned businesses are of paramount importance to defunding Russia’s war machine. Further actions by the West are the key to crippling Russia’s capacity to wage war in 2024 and beyond.”
Natliia Popovych
While the international community cannot simply throw in the towel, a recalibration of strategy is essential.
Drawing blood from a turnip may remain a proverbial impossibility, but with a strategic recalibration and a more unified global front, the international community might yet find a way to get their desired results with sanctions as even the most elusive cats can be convinced to purr in unison.
Congress Urged To Act On Ukraine’s Assistance
Deputy U.S Treasury Secretary, Wally Adeyemo stated that sanctions and export controls are geared towards slowing Russia down, “making it harder for them to fight their war of choice in Ukraine.”
“But ultimately, in order to speed Ukraine up, to give them the ability to defend themselves, Congress needs to act to give Ukraine the resources that they need and the weapons they need,” Adeyemo said.
Experts have warned that the sanctions are not enough to stop Moscow’s attacks.
“What Congress does to pass additional military assistance to Ukraine is going to matter far, far more than anything else they could do on the sanctions front,” Peter Harrell, a former national security council official, said.
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