In April, the UK economy ground to a halt due to bad weather and struggling sectors, dampening hopes for a strong recovery from the previous year’s recession.
This stagnation presents a significant challenge for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as he aims to demonstrate economic resurgence ahead of the upcoming general election on July 4.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a halt in monthly growth following a 0.4% increase in March. The economic momentum was stifled by retail struggles, a manufacturing downturn, and reduced construction output.
City economists forecasted the 0.0% growth figure, attributing the difficulties to the month’s heavy rains, which hampered construction projects and deterred shoppers from the high streets.
Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves criticized Sunak’s economic optimism, stating, “Rishi Sunak claims we have turned a corner, but the economy has stalled and there is no growth.”
Sunak declared in March that the economy was “bouncing back” from the 2023 downturn. A Conservative party spokesperson, responding to the latest figures, maintained, “There is more to do, but the economy is turning a corner and inflation is back down to normal.”
The manufacturing sector saw a 1.4% decline in output in April, paralleled by a 1.4% reduction in construction activity and a 2% decrease in retail trade.
These setbacks were counterbalanced by a 2% rise in the services sector, buoyed by IT and communication services, which grew by 1.2%, and the arts and entertainment sector, which saw a 2.6% increase.
Conservatives Criticized for Poor Economic Show
Paul Nowak, the general secretary of the Trades Union Congress, expressed concerns about the stagnation’s impact on household incomes.
“Our economy is slowing yet again. This has been the worst government for growth in modern times – and working people have paid the price.”
Paul Nowak
He pointed to an analysis of official figures showing annual growth averaging 1.5% since 2010, marking the poorest performance for a government since the Great Depression.
Nowak further noted that inflation-adjusted wages have remained below 2008 levels, and unemployment has surged at the fastest rate among G7 countries this year.
“The Conservatives can spin all they like. But the last 14 years have been dismal for growth and living standards,” Nowak said.
Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, suggested the economy might rebound during the summer.
“Despite the stalling of the recovery in April, the dual drags on economic growth from higher interest rates and higher inflation will continue to fade throughout the year. That will generate a bit of an economic tailwind for the next government.”
Paul Dales
Separate surveys of private sector businesses indicate that most areas of the economy have expanded month on month since the beginning of the year.
Figures released last month revealed a 0.6% growth in the three months leading up to the end of March.
It marked the strongest quarterly growth rate since the end of 2021 and confirmed the UK’s exit from recession following the economic contraction in the latter half of the previous year.
Growth in the three months to the end of April reached 0.7%, aligning with the International Monetary Fund’s forecast for the entire year, as outlined in its spring biannual outlook.
However, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recently downgraded its growth prediction for the UK from 0.7% to 0.4%.
The OECD cited persistent issues, including a significant skills shortage, high retail prices, and high interest rates, as contributing factors to the subdued outlook.
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