According to Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, a recent poll conducted in July, which surveyed 1,370 voters in the Greater Accra region, reveals that 63.8% of respondents intend to vote for John Dramani Mahama.
He stated that the polls also revealed that 30.8% of respondents prefer Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia and 5.4% support other candidates, Alan Kyerematen and Nana Bediako.
Mussa Dankwah further observed that, based on the poll results, if the elections were held today, John Dramani Mahama would enjoy a significant lead of 33 percentage points over his closest rival, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia.
“However, when we analyzed how these respondents voted in the 2020 general election, the data shows, that 55.5% of the respondents had previously voted for Nana Addo in the 2020 elections in the region compared to John Mahama’s 44.2% while others got 0.3%”.
Mussa Dankwah
The Data Analyst noted that this represents a substantial improvement for John Mahama, with a 19.6% increase in support compared to his performance in the 2020 elections, indicating a significant gain in popularity over the past four years.
However, Mussa Dankwah also observed that Dr. Bawumia’s support has significantly eroded, with a loss of 24.7% of the votes secured by Nana Addo in the 2020 elections, indicating a substantial decline in popularity.
Dankwah further clarified that the 24.7% loss in votes suffered by Dr. Bawumia was redistributed among other candidates, with John Mahama gaining 19.6% of those lost votes, while Alan Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako collectively garnered 5.1%, indicating a shift in voter support.
He highlighted that the polling trends in the region (Greater Accra) indicate a historic shift, suggesting that John Mahama is poised to surpass the performance of any presidential candidate in the region since 1992, a remarkable feat that underscores his strong support base.
Central Region Polling Trends
Moreover, Mussa Dankwah observed that according to the July poll, which surveyed 720 voters in the Central Region – a crucial swing region – a significant 39.5% of respondents indicated their intention to vote for John Dramani Mahama, highlighting his strong appeal in this critical electoral area.
He additionally pointed out that the same poll revealed a closely contested race in the region, with 30.1% of voters intending to support Dr. Bawumia, while a combined 30.4% preferred Alan Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako, indicating a tight margin among the NPP and the other contenders.
According to Dankwah, this translates to a significant 9.4% point lead for John Dramani Mahama over his closest rival, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia if the elections were to be held today, further solidifying his position as the front-runner in the Central region.
“But critical analysis of the data about how the respondents voted in the 2020 general election, the poll shows that 65.7% of the respondents had previously voted for Nana Addo in the 2020 elections compared to John Mahama, who received 29%. 5.3% had voted for other candidates. This means that compared to the 2020 elections, John Mahama had actually made 10.5% gains on his 2020 performance in the region while Dr. Bawumia has lost 35.6% of the votes that Nana Addo got in 2020 among these respondents”.
Mussa Dankwah
He also noted that the remaining candidates, Alan Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako, collectively garnered a combined appreciation of 25.1% from the voters, indicating a notable level of support for the individuals.
Dankwah concluded that the polling trends in the region unequivocally indicate a surge in support for Mahama, positioning him to surpass his 2020 performance and emerge victorious in the region if the elections were held today, a testament to his growing popularity and electoral strength.
Despite the polls currently favoring the opposition NDC, political analysts caution that both the NDC and NPP should carefully consider these trends as they strategize their campaigns for the crucial December 2024 polls.
Experts emphasized the importance of adaptability and effective planning in the lead-up to the elections.
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