Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, has revealed that a Central region poll showed a substantial NPP following, with around 34% of respondents declaring their support for the party, demonstrating its strong regional presence.
Dankwah further indicated that 26% of respondents identified as NDC supporters, while 25% remained undecided as floating voters.
Additionally, he indicated that 15% chose not to disclose their party affiliations, and a small minority of 1% expressed support for other political parties.
“However, when voters were asked who they would vote for if the elections were held today, using likely committed voters’ model [exclude undecided and I will not vote], nearly 84% of NPP sympathizers say they would vote for Dr. Bawumia, 10% would vote for Mahama, 3% for Kyerematen, 1% for Bediako and 1% for other candidates”.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah observed that among NDC sympathizers, an overwhelming majority of nearly 99% expressed their intention to vote for John Mahama, with a tiny fraction of 1% supporting Bediako, indicating a high level of party unity behind Mahama’s candidacy.
He noted that according to the poll, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s greatest hurdle in the region is a two-fold challenge: not only is there disunity within his own party, but also a significant loss of support among floating voters, who seem to have turned away from the NPP.
As such, Dankwah warned that this double whammy could decisively undercut Bawumia’s electoral prospects in the Central region, advising urgent action to be taken.
He stated that the poll revealed a striking preference among floating voters in the region, with a significant majority of nearly 79% indicating their intention to vote for John Mahama, while a mere 14% expressed support for Dr. Bawumia, highlighting a substantial gap in favor of Mahama.
Dankwah noted that among floating voters, both Alan Kyerematen and Bediako garnered a modest level of support, each securing 4% of the vote, indicating a relatively small but shared appeal among undecided voters.
Non-Party Voters Lean Towards Mahama
Furthermore, Mussa Dankwah noted that among those who preferred not to reveal their party affiliations, a substantial 86% expressed their intention to vote for John Mahama, with the remaining votes split evenly between Bawumia and Bediako, each garnering 7% support.
Dankwah indicated that Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s support among floating voters in the Central region is eerily similar to his level of support in the Greater Accra region, suggesting a consistent but limited appeal among undecided voters across these two regions.
“Greater Accra, Central, Western, Ashanti, Eastern, and Volta regions will be must-watch regions in December. Greater, Central, and Western for how they swing, and Ashanti, Eastern, and Volta for turnout and margins. Time will tell”.
“It is for a reason we publish voting intentions by affiliations. If a poll is published if you like, disregard who is leading and go straight to the party affiliations and how they are voting”.
Mussa Dankwah
He further noted that if a poll reveals that 59% of a party’s supporters are defecting to their opponent, it’s likely that a similar phenomenon is occurring in the party’s strongholds, where a comparable percentage of their own supporters may be quietly supporting the opposing candidate.
Dankwah noted that the fact that a significant portion of a party’s supporters are voting for an opposing candidate indicates a divide in loyalty, characterized by “skirt and blouse” voting.
As such, he advised political parties to explore the causes of this split allegiance and take corrective measures.
Dankwah emphasized that the data is accurate and reliable, dismissing concerns raised by some party supporters, and highlighted that Global InfoAnalytics takes extra measures to ensure data integrity by repeating surveys with different field officers and samples when doubts arise.
READ ALSO: Kylie Jenner Confronts Ozempic Weight Loss Rumors
