Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, has noted that there are similarities and differences in voter behavior between two sets of constituencies in Greater Accra and the Western Region.
Dankwah explicitly highlighted variations in voting patterns among those who participated in the 2020 presidential election and those who did not, as well as differences in party affiliations and voting intentions.
According to the pollster, the polls indicated a shift in voter allegiance, with some individuals who supported Nana Addo in 2020 now backing John Mahama, while others who previously supported Mahama are switching to Dr. Bawumia or abstaining from voting altogether.
He highlighted the distinct voting intentions of NPP, NDC, and undecided voters (floaters) in the two regions, and provided insight into the implications of the data.
“On defection, from Nana Addo to JDM, both Western and Greater Accra are nearly identical, 31% in GAR and 30% in the Western. JDM to DMB, is also identical in both regions at 2%. However, among those who did not vote, JDM leads by 33 points in GAR but by only 8 points in the Western Region”.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah revealed that in Greater Accra, a significant 15% of NPP voters intend to vote for John Dramani Mahama, whereas in the Western Region, only 3% of NPP voters plan to do so.
He further indicated that this stark difference suggests that the division within the NPP is more pronounced in Greater Accra than in the Western Region.
Dankwah revealed an intriguing regional variation in voting intentions within Ghana’s two main political parties.
He indicated that in the Western Region, an overwhelming 93% of NPP supporters favor Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, whereas in Greater Accra, the figure drops to 81%.
Conversely, NDC loyalty to John Mahama remains remarkably consistent, with 98% support in Greater Accra and 97% in the Western Region.
These findings, the pollster noted, suggest that while NPP support for Bawumia varies significantly across regions, NDC loyalty to Mahama remains steadfast.
Mahama Dominates Among Accra’s Floating Voters
Furthermore, Mussa Dankwah revealed that among floating voters, John Mahama enjoys significantly more support in Greater Accra, with 73% favoring him, compared to the Western Region, where his support stands at 63%.
Dankwah indicated that this represents a notable 10-point difference, indicating that Mahama’s appeal to undecided voters is stronger in Greater Accra than in the Western Region.
He noted that Dr. Bawumia’s performance among floating voters shows little variation between the two regions, garnering 15% support in Greater Accra and 14% in the Western Region, a difference of just one percentage point.
“Our forecast suggests Greater Accra Region and Western region will behave the same way in the 2020 elections but with Western region less bloody compared to Greater Accra. But will the re-mergence of galamsey in this election add a new spicy to the race in the Western region?”
Mussa Dankwah
According to Mussa Dankwah, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia faces a dual challenge in the upcoming election.
He stated that the NPP flagbearer must contend with voters who supported the NPP in 2020 but are now defecting to other candidates and also appeal to floating voters who remain undecided
Dankwah asserted that these two groups pose a significant threat to Bawumia’s electoral prospects, making it crucial for his campaign to address their concerns and win back their support.
“How does he respond to these challenges if he is to be competitive in this election is a question for his campaign strategists”. – Mussa Dankwah
The pollster cautioned the NPP against misinterpreting the Global InfoAnalytics polls, warning that doing so could lead to misguided conclusions.
Instead, he advised the party to seek a deeper understanding of the data rather than dismissing it as unfavorable.
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