Mussa Dankwah revealed that an analysis of the telephone poll shows a decisive majority of voters have made up their minds.
Dankwah indicated that a staggering 92% of voters have cemented their electoral decisions, showing a strong resolve that is unlikely to be swayed.
He further noted that a small but significant minority of voters remain undecided, with 5% indicating they may still change their vote, and 3% expressing no clear stance on the matter.
“The poll also suggests that for those who said they are likely to change their vote, which we know is just 5%, 51% voted for John Dramani Mahama. 44% voted for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, 2% for Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen, 1% for Nana Kwami Bediako and 2% for others”.
“For those who are neutral, again, 60% voted for John Dramani Mahama, 23% for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, 7% for Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen, 3% for Nana Kwami Bediako, and 7% for others”.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah further noted that a breakdown of the respondents who have made up their minds reveals a clear preference, with 61% supporting John Dramani Mahama.
He noted that the remaining votes are divided among other candidates, including Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (35%), Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen (1%), and Nana Kwami Bediako (3%).
The pollster noted that the data implies John Dramani Mahama’s lead would be precarious if a larger proportion of voters were open to changing their minds or remained undecided.
However, he noted that with only 8% of respondents (5% likely to change and 3% neutral) in this category, Mahama’s lead appears relatively stable.
Dankwah highlighted that an overwhelming majority of voters supporting John Dramani Mahama (92%) and Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (92%) have firmly made up their minds.
He maintained that this strong commitment to their chosen candidate suggests a high level of loyalty and stability in their voting decisions.
Mahama’s Support Base Shows Cracks
Furthermore, Mussa Dankwah noted that among John Dramani Mahama’s supporters, a small but notable proportion remains uncertain, with 3% expressing neutrality and 4% indicating they may still change their vote, potentially leaving some room for fluctuation.
Dankwah observed that among Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s supporters, 2% remain neutral, while 6% are open to changing their vote.
He stated that this makes Bawumia slightly more vulnerable than Mahama, as 2% more of his supporters are willing to reconsider their decision.
“In the national telephone poll just released, voters were asked a simple question, “Which of the following leading candidates do you believe understand and cares for people like you?” This is a personal question intended to draw from their inner feeling for the candidates beyond the slogans”.
“In the poll, 49% said John Mahama understands and cares for people like them. 28% said Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, 20% said none of the candidates, 2% said someone else we did not mention and 1% said Alan Kyerematen”.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah added that the poll takes a fascinating turn when the data is analyzed by party affiliation, revealing a more nuanced picture of voter preferences.
He explained that among voters who believe John Mahama genuinely understands and cares for them, 7% identify as NPP supporters, 61% as NDC loyalists, 30% are undecided or floating voters, and 1% declined to disclose their party affiliation.
The pollster observed that among voters who believe Bawumia understands and cares for them, the majority (87%) are NPP supporters, with a tiny fraction (1%) from the NDC, 10% undecided or floating voters, and 2% who didn’t disclose their party affiliation.
According to the pollster, voters who think Alan understands and cares for them comprise 46% NPP supporters, 31% NDC loyalists, 8% undecided or floating voters, and 15% from other parties.
The pollster pointed out that among voters who chose “someone else” as the candidate who understands and cares for them, 10% were NPP supporters, 5% were NDC loyalists,
He further indicated that a significant 52% were undecided or floating voters, 19% were from other parties, and 14% didn’t disclose their party affiliation.
“Finally, for those who say none of the candidates, 16% are NPP, 1% are NDC, 62% are floating voters, and 19% among those who did not disclose their party affiliations”.
Mussa Dankwah
Voting Intentions Align With Candidate Affinity
Moreover, Mussa Dankwah observed that cross-tabbing the data against voting intentions reveals a fascinating insight: among voters who believe John Mahama understands and cares for them, a vast majority (95%) voted for him.
He noted that, however, a small but notable proportion (nearly 2%) of these voters surprisingly chose Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia over Mahama, despite believing Mahama cares for people like them.
“For those who said Dr. Bawumia understands and cares for people like them, 97% voted for him but nearly 2% too voted for John Mahama. For those who said Alan Kyerematen understands and cares for people like them, nearly 77% voted for him, but 8% voted for John Mahama”.
Mussa Dankwah
He noted that among voters who chose “someone else” as the candidate who understands and cares for them, a notable 52% ultimately voted for Nana Bediako, while a smaller proportion (8%) surprisingly cast their ballots for John Mahama.
Mussa Dankwah revealed that among voters who believe none of the candidates understand or care for them, a small percentage will still cast their votes: 3% for John Mahama, 2% for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, 1% for Alan Kyerematen, and 4% for Nana Bediako.
However, a significant majority (54%) remain undecided, while 35% have opted not to vote.
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