The recent decision by the Bank of Ghana (BoG) to cut the Monetary Policy Rate by 200 basis points, reducing it from 29% to 27%, has sparked considerable discussion among investors and financial analysts.
The Monetary Policy Rate, which determines the interest rate at which the BoG lends to commercial banks, plays a critical role in shaping the country’s economy. As with most rate cuts, the potential implications for the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) are significant, presenting both opportunities and risks.
Ms. Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah, a Financial Market Analyst and the President of Women In Forex Ghana, in an interview with the Vaultz News, gave an expert opinion on BoG’s rate cut, noting that the rate cut will act as a boost for the GSE and also likely to introduce new challenges for investors.
A Potential Boost for the Equity Market
Ms Annor-Sika opined that one of the most immediate effects of a policy rate cut is its influence on the broader investment environment.
“Lower interest rates typically reduce the cost of borrowing for businesses, allowing them to access cheaper capital. For companies listed on the GSE, this translates into reduced financing costs, which can lead to increased investment in growth initiatives such as infrastructure, product development, and expansion into new markets.
“As businesses grow, their profitability tends to rise, which in turn increases their attractiveness to investors, potentially driving up their stock prices.”
Ms. Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah
The analyst added that investors may also look to the stock market as an alternative to low-yielding fixed-income securities, such as bonds and treasury bills.
“With lower interest rates, the returns on these traditional safe-haven investments decline, prompting investors to reallocate their funds into equities, which offer higher potential returns,” she explained, highlighting that this shift in investment strategies could result in increased trading activity and higher valuations on the GSE.
Another likely outcome of the rate cut according to Ms Annor-Sika is an increase in liquidity within the financial system. She noted that lower borrowing costs encourage businesses and consumers alike to take on more loans, boosting spending and investment.
“The increased circulation of money within the economy can create favorable conditions for businesses, particularly those in consumer-driven industries such as retail, manufacturing, and services.”
Ms. Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah
For the Ghana Stock Exchange, Ms Annor-Sika further explained that this surge in liquidity may translate into greater investor participation. She noted that as companies benefit from higher revenues due to improved consumer demand, their financial performance is likely to improve.
“This can lead to stronger earnings reports, driving up share prices and increasing overall market confidence. In this environment, the GSE could experience sustained growth, fueled by positive corporate earnings and increased demand for stocks.”
Ms. Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah
Risks of Inflation and Currency Depreciation
While the BoG’s decision to cut rates presents several potential benefits, the analyst pointed out that it also introduces certain risks that investors should be mindful of.
“One of the key concerns is inflation. Lower interest rates can stimulate economic activity, but if demand outpaces supply, inflationary pressures may arise again as we experienced in the recent past times during COVID periods. Rising inflation erodes the purchasing power of consumers and increases costs for businesses, particularly for those reliant on imports.”
Ms. Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah
Ms Annor-Sika noted that for companies listed on the GSE, inflation can lead to higher operating expenses, squeezing profit margins and potentially driving down stock prices. “Additionally, inflationary pressures may compel the BoG to reverse its course and raise interest rates in the future, which could negatively impact both the stock market and the broader economy,” she observed.
Ms Annor-Sika mentioned that currency depreciation is another potential risk. She thus, said, a cut in interest rates often could lead to capital outflows as foreign investors seek higher returns elsewhere.
“This situation may exert pressure on the Ghanaian cedi, causing it to weaken against major currencies like the US dollar. A depreciating currency can have mixed effects on businesses. Exporters may benefit as their goods become cheaper for foreign buyers, while import-dependent companies could see their costs rise, reducing profitability.”
Ms. Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah
For the Ghana Stock Exchange, she noted that a weaker cedi introduces volatility, as investors reassess the risks associated with currency fluctuations. “Foreign investors, in particular, may shy away from the market if they perceive a higher risk of losing value due to currency depreciation, which could limit the inflow of foreign capital into the GSE,” she explained.
Market Volatility and Investor Sentiment
Ms Annor-Sika further noted another aspect to consider is the potential for increased volatility in the stock market. According to her, while lower interest rates generally favor equities, investors may react unpredictably to new economic data, especially regarding inflation and exchange rates.
“If the economy shows signs of overheating or if inflation surges beyond expectations, the market may experience short-term volatility as investors adjust their portfolios accordingly.”
Ms. Gifty Annor-Sika Asantewah
Moreover, she stated that investor sentiment plays a crucial role in shaping stock market performance. The BoG’s rate cut may be seen as a sign that the central bank is focused on boosting economic activity, which could increase investor confidence. “However, if economic conditions worsen, such as a sharp rise in inflation or a steep decline in the cedi, investor sentiment could sour, leading to sell-offs in the market.”
It can be recalled that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Ghana (BoG) cut the rate at which it lends to commercial banks to 27 per cent from 29 per cent.
The Chairman of the committee and Governor of the BoG, Dr Ernest Addison noted that the action was influenced by a favorable economic outlook. He explained that since the first quarter of the year, headline inflation has declined for 5 consecutive months by 5.4 percentage points.
Dr Addison added that core Inflation has also declined sharply over the same comparative period by 6.9 percentage points. These trends, Dr. Addison pointed out suggest that the disinflation process is on course.
“The latest forecasts show that inflation will continue to ease towards the range target of 13-17 per cent for the year and steadily track back towards the medium-term target of 6-10 per cent by the end of 2025, barring unanticipated shocks. At the current juncture, the committee judged the risks to the inflation outlook as fairly balanced.”
Dr Ernest Addison
Ultimately, the rate cut presents both opportunities and challenges for the GSE. While it may provide a short-term boost to the stock market, long-term success will depend on the BoG’s ability to manage inflation and maintain macroeconomic stability. Investors who stay informed and strategically position their portfolios will be best positioned to benefit from the potential gains while mitigating the associated risks.
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