The Ghanaian capital market witnessed a notable shift in foreign investor participation in 2023, as equity investments surged while debt holdings experienced a significant decline.
According to the 2024 Financial Stability Review, the changing dynamics in the market can be attributed to several factors, including the impact of the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP) and shifting investor confidence. This trend highlights both the growing appeal of equities and the challenges faced by the debt market.
In 2023, foreign investors increased their participation in Ghana’s equity market, with holdings rising to GH₵20.90 billion by the end of December. This marks a substantial improvement from GH₵15.43 billion recorded at the end of December 2022. The increased interest in equities is a reflection of improved stock market performance and growing confidence in certain key sectors. Companies with strong fundamentals and growth prospects have drawn the attention of foreign investors, who are seeking higher returns despite the associated risks.
The surge in equity investments comes against the backdrop of a general recovery in the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) after a challenging period in 2022. Improved corporate earnings and a relatively stable macroeconomic environment contributed to the bullish sentiment among foreign investors. Additionally, the expectation of higher returns in the equity market compared to the debt market played a significant role in driving investor preference towards stocks.
Decline in Foreign Participation in the Debt Market
While equity investments soared, foreign participation in the debt market declined. The report reveals that foreign investors’ debt holdings fell to GH₵17.47 billion at the end of December 2023, down from GH₵18.70 billion in December 2022. This 6.6% decrease was largely influenced by the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme, which caused a shake-up in investor confidence.
The DDEP, aimed at restructuring Ghana’s public debt, led to a re-evaluation of the risk associated with holding government bonds. Many foreign investors chose to offload their debt securities due to concerns about potential losses and uncertainties surrounding the new terms of the bonds. The sell-off further exacerbated the decline in debt holdings, as foreign investors sought safer or more lucrative investment alternatives.
Despite the increase in foreign equity participation, the market showed signs of vulnerability due to high concentration in a few key stocks. According to the Financial Stability Review, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), which measures market concentration, indicated a high level of focus on the top ten firms in terms of total market capitalization and trading volumes. This concentration risk suggests that a downturn in these dominant stocks could lead to significant market volatility.
The reliance on a small number of stocks creates an environment where market swings can be pronounced, affecting overall stability. Investors are exposed to greater risks, especially if these few companies experience negative shocks. The concentrated nature of market activities calls for diversification strategies to enhance resilience and stability in the stock market.
Decline in Market Efficiency and Stability
The efficiency and stability of the stock market took a hit in 2023, despite the surge in equity investments. The index for the efficiency dimension, which reflects the proportion of shares delivering consistent returns, declined from 0.31 in December 2022 to 0.18 in December 2023. The percentage of shares with zero returns increased from 32.25% to 40%, indicating a drop in the overall performance of a broader range of stocks.
Market stability also deteriorated, with the stability index declining from 0.58 in December 2022 to 0.26 in December 2023. This decline was driven by a reduction in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio by 29.20%, alongside an 8.18% increase in the volatility index. The falling P/E ratio reflects investor skepticism regarding future earnings growth, while the higher volatility index points to increased price fluctuations in the market.
The contrasting trends in foreign participation in Ghana’s equity and debt markets highlight the evolving dynamics of the investment climate. The decline in debt holdings signals a cautionary stance among foreign investors, driven by the uncertainties introduced by the DDEP and concerns over debt sustainability. On the other hand, the surge in equity investments suggests a renewed interest in the stock market, as investors look for higher yields and capitalize on the recovery in key sectors.
However, the reduced stability and efficiency of the stock market may pose challenges in the near term. Concentrated investments in a few dominant stocks make the market vulnerable to swings, and the increase in the percentage of non-performing shares signals underlying weaknesses. To sustain the positive momentum in equity investments, stakeholders must address these risks and work towards a more diversified and resilient market.
With the right measures, Ghana’s capital markets can attract even greater foreign interest and contribute significantly to economic development.
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