Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has assured that his nation has no intentions of engaging in conflict with Eritrea over access to the Red Sea, amid growing speculation about a possible military confrontation between the two neighboring countries.
The prime minister acknowledged that access to the Red Sea is a crucial matter for landlocked Ethiopia but insisted that his government is committed to resolving the issue through peaceful negotiations and diplomatic dialogue.
According to a post from his office on X, Abiy stated, “Ethiopia does not have any intention of engaging in conflict with Eritrea for the purpose of gaining access to the sea.”
Concerns over a potential war escalated in recent weeks following reports from human rights organizations that Eritrea had ordered a nationwide military mobilization. Diplomatic sources and officials also reported Ethiopia’s deployment of troops towards the border.
Eritrea, for its part, has accused Ethiopia of harboring ambitions over the strategic port of Assab. “Eritrea is perplexed by Ethiopia’s misguided and outdated ambitions for maritime access and naval base ‘through diplomacy or military force’,” Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel said on Tuesday. He reiterated these concerns in a meeting with international diplomats.
In a post on X, Yemane called on the global community to “pressure Ethiopia to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its neighbors.” He dismissed allegations that Eritrea was preparing for war against Ethiopia, labeling them as “false accusations.”
Renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea would undo the historic peace deal that earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. It would also heighten the humanitarian crisis in the region, which is already suffering from the ongoing war in Sudan.
Fallout From the Tigray War
The fragile relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea was strained following the 2020-2022 civil war between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). During the conflict, Eritrean forces entered Ethiopia to support Abiy’s government.
However, the peace agreement signed in Pretoria, South Africa, in November 2022 did not include Eritrea, creating friction between the two nations. Since then, divisions have emerged within the TPLF itself, with rival factions vying for control of the region’s interim administration.
The Ethiopian government-backed interim administration in Tigray has accused a dissident faction of collaborating with Eritrea, while the dissidents claim that the administration has failed to protect the interests of Tigrayans.
Addressing parliament on Thursday, Abiy announced a one-year extension of the Tigray interim administration, with modifications. However, he did not specify whether this would involve leadership changes — a key demand of the dissident faction. “In line with the Pretoria agreement, the interim administration will continue until the next election,” he stated, referring to the general elections scheduled for 2026.
Strategic Importance of the Red Sea
The Red Sea remains one of the world’s most vital maritime trade routes, linking Asia, the Middle East, and Europe through the Suez Canal. This narrow corridor facilitates approximately 10% of global maritime trade, including 20% of all container shipping, nearly 10% of seaborne oil, and 8% of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
However, since late 2023, Houthi attacks on commercial vessels have severely disrupted trade through the Red Sea. As a result, vessel transits have plunged by 56% year-on-year, with container traffic suffering a staggering 73% decline. The daily volume of shipping containers has dropped from around 500,000 in November 2023 to just 200,000—a 66% reduction from expected levels.
These disruptions have had significant economic repercussions. Major shipping companies have been forced to reroute vessels around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, adding up to 20 days to transit times between Asian manufacturing centers and European markets. This detour has driven up shipping costs, with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimating that prolonged increases could contribute an additional 0.4 percentage points to inflation in developed economies.
The ongoing friction between Ethiopia and Eritrea underscores how geopolitical instability in key maritime chokepoints can swiftly escalate into global economic disruptions, affecting supply chains and consumers worldwide.
