Ghana’s external sector is showing remarkable resilience and strength in 2025, with a provisional trade surplus of $5.6 billion recorded in the first half of the year.
This represents a significant leap from the $1.4 billion surplus in the same period in 2024, highlighting improved export performance, prudent policy implementation, and rising global demand for key Ghanaian commodities.
The Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held an emergency meeting on Thursday, July 17, 2025, to assess the country’s evolving macroeconomic conditions. The outcome of this meeting underscores the central bank’s confidence in the external sector and the overall economic trajectory.
At the core of the growing trade surplus is Ghana’s export engine—gold, cocoa, and oil. These three sectors continue to benefit from higher global prices and increased production volumes. Gold exports in particular surged in the first six months of the year, driven by both artisanal and large-scale mining activities and robust foreign demand.
Cocoa exports have also seen a rebound after a challenging 2023 season, thanks to favorable weather conditions and strategic interventions by the Ghana Cocoa Board. Crude oil output has stabilized, contributing to a more diversified export base and improved foreign exchange earnings.
According to the Bank of Ghana, foreign exchange inflows from these exports, combined with strong remittances and better investor sentiment, have bolstered the country’s external position and helped improve the balance of payments.
Current Account Surplus Also Jumps
The current account surplus also saw an impressive turnaround, reaching $3.4 billion in the first half of 2025, up sharply from $283.1 million in the same period in 2024. This reflects not just improved export revenues, but also disciplined import management and rising services receipts.
The central bank indicated that prudent policy frameworks and improved competitiveness of the cedi have contributed to containing the growth of imports while enhancing exports, resulting in a stronger current account position.
These gains have had a cascading effect on other macroeconomic indicators, most notably international reserves, which rose to $11.1 billion as of end-June 2025, equivalent to 4.8 months of import cover, up from $8.98 billion at the end of 2024.
Cedi Appreciation Reflects External Gains
The Ghana cedi has appreciated by a staggering 42.6% year-to-date against the US dollar—a development tied directly to the improved trade and current account balances. The central bank attributes this appreciation to strong forex inflows, investor confidence, and enhanced monetary and fiscal discipline.
The currency’s stability and upward trajectory are expected to ease imported inflation and contribute further to ongoing disinflation, which has seen headline inflation fall from 23.8% in December 2024 to 13.7% in June 2025.
The Bank of Ghana emphasized that the strengthening of the external sector affirms the effectiveness of ongoing policy reforms. These include enhanced fiscal consolidation efforts, better coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities, and improved public debt management under the IMF-supported Post-COVID Programme for Economic Growth (PC-PEG).
“The external buffers have strengthened, and confidence in the economy is returning,” the MPC stated in its post-meeting release. It added that these gains are critical in anchoring inflation expectations and supporting sustainable growth.
Despite Ghana’s positive domestic developments, the MPC cautioned that the global environment remains fragile. Global growth is projected to slow to 2.8% in 2025 from 3.3% in 2024, with financial conditions expected to remain tight. Moreover, disinflation efforts in advanced economies are proceeding unevenly, potentially impacting global trade flows and commodity prices.
Nonetheless, the Bank of Ghana reaffirmed its commitment to safeguarding the economic recovery without compromising the gains achieved thus far. The next regular MPC meeting is scheduled for July 28–30, 2025, where a new policy decision will be announced.
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