Public misunderstanding of immigration levels in the UK is fueling hardline political attitudes, according to a new report by YouGov, which reveals a strong correlation between extreme anti-immigration positions and misconceptions about illegal migration figures.
The research exposes a widespread belief that illegal immigration significantly outweighs legal entries, a claim that contradicts existing census and policy data. Analysts say this misunderstanding may help explain why almost half of UK voters support drastic measures, such as stopping all new immigration and forcibly removing migrants who arrived in recent years.
YouGov’s polling found that 26% of respondents “strongly” support these proposals, while another 19% “somewhat” agree, although no major political party has advocated for such a policy in decades. The data also show that this bloc of support is largely driven by misinformation.
YouGov researcher Matthew Smith described the finding as “extraordinary,” given how far the sentiment veers from mainstream political platforms. He added that those who favor mass deportations are disproportionately likely to believe that illegal immigrants outnumber legal ones.
Nearly half of the respondents (47%) said there are more illegal migrants than legal ones residing in the UK. However, Smith explained that this perception “appears to be wide of the mark.”
Hardline Views Tied To Misinformation
Estimates of the UK’s illegal migrant population vary, ranging from 120,000 to 1.3 million. Even the highest figures fall well below the legally documented foreign-born population, which stood at 10.7 million according to the 2021–2022 census.
Smith observed: “Almost half of Britons (47%) think there are more migrants staying in the UK illegally rather than legally… [and] crucially, this view is held by 72% of those who want to see mass removals.”
Some of the confusion stems from the disproportionate media focus on small boat arrivals across the English Channel. While these crossings receive high visibility, the actual number of arrivals has remained relatively low in comparison to overall migration trends. In 2022, 46,000 migrants arrived by small boats, a fraction of the UK’s net migration figure of 900,000 for the year ending June 2023.
YouGov noted that sensationalist coverage and political rhetoric have contributed to the public’s inflated perception of illegal immigration’s role in national statistics. Smith cautioned that while improved public understanding could ease some of the tension, it would not eliminate immigration as a political issue.
“While it is clear that legal migration dramatically outweighs illegal migration, that is not to say that if only the public could be made aware of this fact, then immigration would disappear as an issue,” he explained.
A plurality of those surveyed still believe legal immigration is too high, and a sizeable minority expresses doubts about the success of migrant integration into British society. This suggests that, beyond statistical inaccuracies, deeper concerns about national identity, societal cohesion, and cultural values continue to influence voter sentiment.
YouGov concludes that policymakers hoping to address immigration must go beyond correcting factual misunderstandings. The polling underscores the need for nuanced engagement with public concerns, particularly those linked to identity and values, if Britain is to navigate its increasingly polarized debate over immigration.
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