The upcoming Akwatia by-election is shaping up to be a fiercely contested political battleground, with fresh polling data from Global InfoAnalytics suggesting that the New Patriotic Party (NPP) may be at risk of losing its traditional grip on the constituency.
Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, has raised questions about the party’s ability to sustain its current lead amid mounting pressure from the opposition.
According to the polling data, the NPP candidate Asumadu is currently ahead, but by a narrow margin that leaves room for a possible upset.
The situation in Apinamang, a key Electoral Area in Akwatia, appears particularly troubling for the NPP, as the National Democratic Congress (NDC) is showing unexpected strength there.
“Will Almighty Apinamang be NPP’s Waterloo as the NDC candidate leads in an Electoral Area that has been a no-go area for the NDC since 1992?
“It would have been a walk in the park for NPP if Henry Yiadom Boakye had won the primaries for the NDC, according to the polls.”
Mussa Dankwah
In fact, polling figures show that “NPP’s Asumadu led Hon. Henry Boakye by 22.5%, a gap that could have been very difficult to close regardless of NDC’s goodwill.”
This suggests that internal candidate dynamics within the NDC may play a pivotal role in determining the eventual outcome.
The report from Global InfoAnalytics also revisits the outcome of the Assin North by-election, hinting at a possible repetition of history.
With just under a month to go before the vote, the firm predicts that the NPP’s Asumadu is entering a difficult phase of the campaign.
The party’s lead in Akwatia, according to the poll, is no longer secure and could evaporate if the NDC continues its upward trend in critical electoral zones.
Better Candidate Could Tip The Balance In Akwatia
According to Mussa Dankwah, the most competitive candidate the NDC could field is Asanka, also known as Erasmus Koney Ali.
He trails Asumadu by just 4.9%, making him a more formidable challenger than Lawyer Bernard Baidoo, who falls behind by 5.9%. Interestingly, Baidoo remains a notable figure in the race, but Asanka’s stronger polling numbers highlight the value of strategic candidate selection.
Meanwhile, in a scenario involving the former MP Ama Sey, who was sidelined by the NPP, polls suggest that her absence might actually benefit the party.
Dankwah commented that the NPP’s decision to overlook her candidacy was strategically sound, as she would have trailed Baidoo in a head-to-head match-up.
Conversely, Sey would likely have defeated Henry Yiadom Boakye had he become the NDC’s candidate, suggesting a complex interplay of personalities and popularity within the constituency.
As the Akwatia by-election approaches, the race is also becoming a barometer for national political dynamics.
In the presidential preference poll conducted in the same constituency, former Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia and Kennedy Agyapong are locked in a tight contest, with Education Minister Yaw Adutwum also gaining momentum.
This tripartite struggle indicates a fragmented landscape within the NPP itself, pointing to internal challenges that could impact voter turnout and party unity.
“Meanwhile, in the race for the NDC, Ato Forson leads, but Asiedu Nketia and Haruna are on his heels in the Akwatia constituency.”
Mussa Dankwah
Their competitive positioning underscores the growing influence of alternative figures within the ruling party and hints at possible shifts in power dynamics ahead of the national election in 2028.
The critical battleground of Apinamang continues to be the focal point in this high-stakes by-election. A shift there could spell disaster for the NPP, which has relied heavily on the area to secure victories in previous contests.
“Nearly a month before the Akwatia by-election, NPP’s Asumadu holds a slim lead but could face a difficult task of maintaining the lead as NDC chokes NPP in Apinamang, a must-win Electoral Area for NPP.”
Mussa Dankwah
Overall, the political terrain in Akwatia is growing more unpredictable by the day. While Asumadu remains the frontrunner for now, the narrowing gap between candidates, especially in crucial areas like Apinamang, suggests a volatile race.
With party strategies under scrutiny and voter sentiment fluctuating, both major parties will need to fine-tune their ground operations if they hope to clinch victory in what promises to be one of Ghana’s most closely watched by-elections this year.
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