The IMANI Centre for Policy and Education in episode three of its Public Understanding and Literacy for Sentiment and Election Analysis report has revealed that public negative sentiment almost tripled on social media since the Vice President, Dr Mahmudu Bawumia held his maiden address on Wednesday, February 7 2024 at the University of Professional Studies, Accra from 13% to 35%.
The report also revealed that public opinion on the two major candidates, the Vice President, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia and Former President John Dramani Mahama were relatively unchanged up till the recent public address by Dr Mahamudu Bawumia on the 7th of February.
The report further indicated that Nana Kwame Bediako, popularly known as ‘Cheddar’, is the most talked about independent candidate and an emerging third force, based on social media sentiment and engagements.
“The period under observation for this edition of the report is from the 15th of January to the 11th of February 2024. IMANI presents EPISODE 3 of Public Understanding and Literacy for Sentiment and Election analysis (PULSE), a fortnightly curated social media-based sentiment analysis report designed to follow the ‘pulse’ of Ghanaians in the run up to the 2024 Election.
“The analyses are referenced from the following platforms: Facebook, X (formerly, Twitter), YouTube, Web, TikTok, Instagram, Podcasts and Newsfeeds”.
IMANI Africa’s Pulse, Episode 3 Report
The IMANI Centre for Policy and Education in episode three of its Public Understanding and Literacy for Sentiment and Election Analysis report further revealed that public sentiments towards the NDC and NPP have taken hits, albeit with the NDC taking a larger hit in terms of percentage of positive sentiments as against number of mentions.
According to the report, for every 100 mentions of the New Patriotic Party on social, there were 10.30 positives, as against a figure of 10.32 for the opposition National Democratic Congress.
The report emphasized that the opposition party is still very marginally ahead of the New Patriotic Party in terms of positive sentiments on social media.
IMANI- Africa On Negative Public Sentiment Among NPP And NDC
Furthermore, the IMANI Centre for Policy and Education in episode three of its Public Understanding and Literacy for Sentiment and Election Analysis report captured that negative public sentiment against the two leading political parties in the country over the period between the 15th of January to the 11th of February 2024 was a ‘mixed bag’.
The report noted that, between the periods of 15th of January to the 11th of February 2024, there were twice more mentions of the New Patriotic Party over the National Democratic Congress, however, the New Patriotic Party had more negative mentions than the National Democratic Congress.
The report also recounted that public (social media) negative sentiment after the ‘#BawumiaSpeaks’ event has doubled since the event as total negative sentiments which was 13.22% before the event had almost tripled to 35.71% after the event.
According to the report, the feedback is directly in proportion to mentions on social media made after the speech which means that while there was a spike in commentary about the candidate, over a third of the commentary was negative, as against only just over 9% being positive.
“The purely negative sentiments tell a very insightful story about the public (social media’s) reception, views and analysis of Bawumia’s speech. Since this speech virtually outlines Candidate Bawumia’s major campaign thrust and sets the tone for the rest of the campaign period for the NPP, it is important to analyze the public’s reaction to this landmark event”.
IMANI Africa’s Pulse, Episode 3 Report
Moreover, the IMANI Centre for Policy and Education in episode three of its Public Understanding and Literacy for Sentiment and Election Analysis report revealed that the activities in the last 3 weeks have the ruling New Patriotic Party having a much higher number of mentions than the National Democratic Congress.
According to the report, the mentions included the New Patriotic Party’s parliamentary primaries held in late January, as well as the Vice President maiden address held on Wednesday, February 7 2024 in which both events sparked a lot of social media reactions from many social media observers.
“There have been significant increases in the number of mentions analyzed during the period compared to the earlier periods due to easier access to data mentions the maturity of the data collection process and the ability to analyze social media data.
“These increments and the ratios are still important in analyzing general trends that could be extrapolated to the larger population”.
IMANI Africa’s Pulse, Episode 3 Report
The report also argued that the social media reach of the ruling New Patriotic Party is twice that of the National Democratic Congress with the growth over the same time being almost twice that of the growth of New Patriotic Party’s social media reach during the same period.
However, the report stated that there were proportionally more interactions related to National Democratic Congress mentions than there were to the New Patriotic Party mentions.
According to the report, both the two leading political parties did grow significantly in the period, with NPP having 93% more interactions than the NDC’s 77%, however, considering that there were no major events during the period for the NDC, it then makes for some interesting ‘analysis’ and ‘extrapolations’.
As to positive mentions, the report indicated that those of the NPP increased by a relatively large 139%, as against 54% higher positive NDC mentions while the number of negative mentions over the previous period also were almost than twice by a margin of 230% for the NPP, while the increase in NDC negative sentiments was 188% more.
The report concluded by indicating that Alan Kyerematen with his Butterfly Movement have a social media reach of 177,000 on social media and a non-social media reach of 324,000 while Nana Kwame Bediako with his New Force Movement and the hashtag #TheNewForce seems to be a rising star on social media.
The report emphasized that while the Butterfly Movement leader stems from an established political figure, it seems that he triggers less discussions and interactions on social media than Nana Kwame Bediako who is very new to the Ghanaian political landscape.
According to the report, the existing contenders have a combined social media presence consistently just about 10% of Nana Kwame Bediako’s social media presence in all the ‘main markers’.
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