Labour would lose its parliamentary majority and nearly 200 of the seats it secured in July’s general election if another vote were held today, according to a major new poll.
The findings come as a political setback for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whose government has faced mounting criticism in its early months.
The analysis, conducted by the think tank More in Common and based on survey data from over 11,000 respondents, revealed Labour’s dramatic decline.
According to the study, the party would forfeit 87 seats to the Conservatives, 67 to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, and 26 to the SNP. Reform UK, riding on a surge of voter support, would emerge as the third-largest party in Parliament.
The polling suggests that Labour faces a near-collapse in regions where it previously made substantial gains. In the West Country, backlash over inheritance tax changes for farmers has alienated voters, while broader dissatisfaction over government decisions has compounded Labour’s struggles.
The report also highlights public anger over ministers rejecting compensation for Waspi women — an issue that has added to the perception of a faltering administration.
Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common, said: “There is no doubt that many voters have found the start of the Starmer government disappointing, and Labour’s estimated vote share would drop significantly were there to be an election tomorrow.”
“Far from the usual electoral honeymoon, our model estimates that Labour would lose nearly 200 of the seats they won in July’s election. Decisions such as means testing the winter fuel allowance and other Budget measures have landed badly. The pressure from the public is now on the government to deliver.”
Luke Tryl
The poll projects that Labour would secure just over a third of seats, leaving the country on course for a hung parliament. The analysis predicts seven cabinet ministers would lose their constituencies, with six of them defeated by Reform UK candidates.
Among the high-profile losses are Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, and Defence Secretary John Healey. Wes Streeting, the health secretary, is forecast to lose Ilford North to an independent candidate.
Labour’s precarious position is compounded by the rise of Reform UK, which has steadily gained traction since the general election. This week, the party claimed to have surpassed the Conservative Party in membership, a statement that has sparked debate across political circles.
The poll underscores the growing fragmentation of British politics, with More in Common noting that 271 seats could be won with less than a third of the vote. If accurate, this would signal the potential decline of the country’s two-party system.
Discontent and the Rise of Reform UK
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has emerged as a significant force in the political landscape, capitalizing on voter frustration with both major parties.
A recent Techne UK tracker poll recorded a three-point jump in Reform UK’s popularity within a week, reinforcing its momentum ahead of any potential election.
Farage has framed his party as a voice for disenfranchised voters seeking alternatives to Labour and the Conservatives. This strategy appears to resonate with an electorate disillusioned by Labour’s early policy decisions and perceived missteps.
Labour’s decline in voter confidence comes at a critical juncture, just months after its sweeping victory in July. While the Starmer government remains in its infancy, the poll suggests a growing impatience among voters.
As dissatisfaction mounts, the challenge for Sir Keir Starmer and his cabinet will be to stabilize public support and deliver results that align with campaign promises. Whether Labour can recover from this early stumble remains to be seen, but the rise of Reform UK signals a potentially seismic shift in Britain’s political dynamics.
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