Fitch Solutions, along with Absa Bank, had initially forecasted that the Ghanaian cedi would close 2025 at GHS 15 to the US dollar. However, in a recent revision, Fitch has adjusted its outlook, now projecting the cedi to end the year at GHS 13 to $1.
Despite this revised forecast, Bismarck Osei, an economist from the CK Tedam University of Technology and Applied Sciences, holds a different view.
He believes the cedi is poised to perform even better than Fitch’s updated estimate, citing government interventions that are beginning to yield results.
In an interview with the Vaultz News, Bismarck Osei stated that if the current economic gains are sustained, the cedi could strengthen further—potentially trading between GHS 9 and 10 to the dollar by year-end.
“The GHC 13 is too high. I strongly believe that the cedi will end the year between 9 cedis to 10 cedis. Taking into cognizance, gold prices will continue to increase due to Trump tariffs. Our quantity of gold exports is expected to exceed 5 million ounces this year, compared to 4.1 million ounces in 2024. Effective implementation of GoldBod will help.”
Bismarck Osei
He asserted that all key economic indicators suggest the Ghanaian cedi—and by extension, the broader economy—is moving in a positive direction. Based on this trend, he believes the cedi will outperform Fitch Solutions’ recent projections by the close of 2025.
He also identified several ongoing initiatives that could strengthen the cedi against major foreign currencies.
These include the continued implementation of the Bank of Ghana’s gold-buying program, the acquisition of foreign exchange from gold exporters, effective rollout of the Feed Ghana Program to cut down the country’s $2 billion annual food import bill, and a steady rise in remittances.
The economist emphasized that redirecting the $2 billion typically spent on food imports into enhancing the country’s foreign exchange reserves could significantly improve the cedi’s performance.
A stronger currency, he explained, would translate into a more resilient economy.
Highlighting the importance of internal structural reform, he noted that a considerable portion of the cedi’s current strength is attributed to external influences—a dynamic that presents long-term risks to sustainable economic stability.
He pointed out that external factors, particularly global gold prices, account for 86% to 88% of the cedi’s performance, while internal factors contribute only about 12% to 14%.
According to him, this imbalance is unfavorable for the country’s long-term economic health.
Mr. Osei voiced concern over the reliance on external drivers to sustain the economy. He called for stronger internal economic management to ensure that Ghana can withstand potential external shocks if global conditions become less favorable in the future.
Cedi’s Strength Benefits Business
Mr. Bismarck Osei further noted that the business community often bears the brunt of poor economic policies, making it evident that when the economy is on a stable path, they are among the primary beneficiaries of a strong and stable cedi.
He elaborated that since the U.S. dollar remains the dominant trading currency, any significant appreciation of the cedi against the dollar offers businesses an opportunity to achieve higher trade surpluses and increase their profit margins.
“It will have a positive impact on our businesses because the majority of our business communities are importers (70% to 75%). Exporters are few (25%) and are mostly found in gold, oil, and cocoa. Especially gold and oil exporters, 75% are foreigners.”
Bismarck Osei
The economist emphasized the urgency for the government to move beyond merely exporting raw gold and instead invest in establishing a gold refinery.
This, he believes, would allow the country to refine its own gold, add value to its exports, and significantly boost foreign exchange earnings to support the national economy.
He also highlighted the importance of diversifying Ghana’s economic focus. According to him, an overreliance on gold revenue poses a risk, especially in the event of a sudden drop in global gold prices. “What happens if the price of gold begins to fall?” he questioned.
He underscored the potential benefits of expanding into other key sectors such as the automobile industry, textiles and garments, pharmaceuticals, agriculture and agribusiness, tourism, and petrochemicals.
According to his estimates, these sectors could collectively generate over $12 billion annually while also creating substantial employment opportunities.
Despite these concerns, the Ghanaian cedi has maintained a strong position. According to data from the Bank of Ghana, the local currency is currently trading at GHC 10.24 to the U.S. dollar, reflecting its continued strong performance.
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