Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has issued a warning to Ethiopia, cautioning against the risk of reigniting conflict in the already fragile Horn of Africa. The message comes amid rising tensions over Ethiopia’s ambitions to secure direct access to the sea, a move Eritrea sees as a threat to regional stability.
Relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia have remained tense since Eritrea gained independence in 1993. The two nations fought a devastating war between 1998 and 2000, leaving tens of thousands dead. Although a peace agreement was signed in 2018, which initially brought hope for reconciliation, conflict flared again in Ethiopia’s Tigray region from 2020 to 2022, where Eritrean forces supported rebels fighting against Ethiopian troops.
President Afwerki, who has led Eritrea with a tight grip since independence, directly addressed Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, cautioning him against any illusions of military superiority based on population size. Ethiopia has a population of about 130 million, compared to Eritrea’s 3.5 million.
“If he thinks he can overwhelm (Eritrean forces) with human wave attack, he is mistaken,” Afwerki declared. He emphasized that Ethiopia must first resolve its internal issues before “dragging the people of Ethiopia into unwanted wars or using them for another political agenda.”
Afwerki described Abiy’s approach as “reckless” and accused him of attempting to “divert attention” from domestic challenges by stoking regional tensions.
Since the end of the Tigray conflict, which killed at least 600,000 people according to African Union estimates, Eritrea has maintained a military presence in the region. This issue has strained diplomatic ties. While Abiy insists that Ethiopia seeks maritime access only through peaceful means, Eritrean officials remain unconvinced.
Tensions Rise Over Ethiopia’s Sea Access
At the heart of the dispute is Ethiopia’s status as a landlocked country. When Eritrea gained independence, Ethiopia lost its coastline and has since relied heavily on Djibouti for 95% of its international trade. This dependency is costly: Ethiopia spends an estimated $1.5 billion annually on port fees alone. The lengthy 900km route from Addis Ababa to the Port of Djibouti further adds to logistical challenges, inflating the cost of imports and weakening the competitiveness of exports.
In 2023, Ethiopia imported goods worth $17.9 billion and exported about $3.88 billion, with major exports including coffee, oil seeds, and vegetables. Its trade-to-GDP ratio stood at 18% for imports and 8% for exports, reflecting a significant trade imbalance. The country’s economic growth and ambitions to become an East African powerhouse are deeply constrained by its lack of direct sea access, which continues to shape its geopolitical strategy.
A recent report by US watchdog group the Sentry accused Eritrea of rebuilding its army and destabilizing neighboring countries. Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Ghebremeskel dismissed the report, instead blaming “the new tension in the region” on Ethiopia.
Eritrea, which had been under US arms sanctions until they were lifted after the 2018 peace deal, remains one of the world’s most closed and repressive states. It is ranked last globally for press freedom and 175th out of 183 on the Human Development Index, according to 2022 UN data.
Despite being one of the continent’s most populous and economically promising nations, Ethiopia’s growth is at risk if regional disputes escalate. Whether diplomatic solutions prevail or tensions boil over into another devastating conflict may depend on how both governments handle the increasingly urgent issue of maritime access.
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