Nigeria’s crude oil trade with the United States slipped in the first seven months of 2025, revealing both its continuing importance as America’s top African supplier and the fragility of its earnings.

New figures from the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis show that Nigeria earned $2.21 billion from crude exports to Washington between January and July 2025. That came from 28.7 million barrels shipped across the Atlantic, cementing Nigeria’s position as the single largest African supplier ahead of Libya, Angola, and Ghana.

On a customs basis, which calculates value at the point of export, Nigeria’s crude fetched $2.16 billion. But when shipping and insurance costs were factored in under Cost, Insurance, and Freight (C.I.F.) pricing, the total rose to $2.21 billion. The difference underscores the significant logistical expenses of transporting oil to one of its largest global markets.

While still leading Africa’s crude supply to the United States, the numbers show a marked year-on-year decline. During the same seven-month stretch in 2024, Nigeria exported 31.5 million barrels valued at $2.78 billion on a customs basis and $2.83 billion under C.I.F. calculations.

The 2025 performance reflects an 8.8 percent drop in shipment volume and an even steeper 22 percent fall in dollar value, a sign of weaker crude prices and unstable demand patterns.

Monthly data also paints a volatile picture. June 2025 brought some relief, as Nigeria shipped 6.95 million barrels, worth $484 million on a customs basis and $496 million under C.I.F. terms. But in July, the volume dropped to just 4.4 million barrels, with corresponding values of $328 million and $336 million. The steep month-on-month decline reignited concerns over whether Nigeria can sustain consistent crude exports in a challenging market environment.

Other African suppliers recorded far smaller volumes and revenues in comparison. Between January and July 2025, Libya earned $729.3 million from sales to the United States, Angola $426.6 million, and Ghana $225.8 million. Collectively, African crude exports to America amounted to $3.82 billion during this period, more than half of which came from Nigeria alone.

The figures emphasize Nigeria’s central role in Africa’s oil trade with the United States, even as its own export earnings falter. Analysts warn that the sharp decline in revenues exposes Nigeria’s vulnerability to external shocks in oil prices and global demand.

Oil Decline Adds Fiscal Pressure

The strain on Nigeria’s oil exports is also reflected in domestic trade statistics. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that total crude oil exports fell by N3.18 trillion in the first half of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024, despite production levels improving.

According to the NBS, crude exports were valued at N24.92 trillion between January and June 2025, down from N28.10 trillion in the first half of 2024. The fall represented an 11.3 percent year-on-year decline.

The steepest drop occurred in the first quarter of 2025, when exports totaled N12.96 trillion, compared with N15.49 trillion in Q1 2024. This N2.53 trillion shortfall translated to a 16.3 per cent decline. The second quarter showed a smaller but still significant dip, falling from N12.61 trillion in Q2 2024 to N11.97 trillion in Q2 2025, a 5.1 percent contraction.

Equally striking is the falling contribution of crude oil to Nigeria’s overall exports. In Q1 2024, crude oil accounted for 80.8 percent of total exports. By Q1 2025, this had slid to 62.9 percent, nearly 18 percentage points lower.

The downward trend extended into the next quarter, with crude making up 52.6 per cent of exports in Q2 2025, compared with 71.2 percent in Q2 2024, a loss of 18.6 percentage points.

The combined data underscores the mounting fiscal pressure Nigeria faces as crude oil revenues shrink. While still vital to the country’s economic stability and foreign reserves, oil’s diminishing share in both earnings and exports highlights the urgency for diversification.