The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has announced that it will pause further oil production increases during the first quarter of 2026, following a modest output hike scheduled for December 2025.
In a statement released on its official website after a virtual ministerial meeting, the alliance confirmed plans to raise production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December 2025, consistent with earlier incremental increases implemented in October and November.
“In view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories, the eight participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 137 thousand barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023.”
OPEC+
According to the OPEC+ statement, “This adjustment will be implemented in December 2025.” However, OPEC+ stated that, beyond December, it will pause further production increments in January, February, and March 2026 due to seasonal factors affecting global oil demand.
“Beyond December, due to seasonality, the eight countries also decided to pause the production increments in January, February, and March 2026.”
OPEC+
Cautious Strategy to Maintain Market Stability
The decision reflects OPEC+’s ongoing effort to balance market stability with price support amid a complex global energy landscape.
The group’s cautious approach underscores its intention to avoid oversupply, especially as the world faces mixed economic signals from major consumers such as the United States, China, and Europe.
OPEC+ reiterated that the 1.65 million bpd voluntary cuts, first introduced in April 2023, could be restored in part or in full “subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner.”
“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability.
“They reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to continue pausing or reverse the additional voluntary production adjustments.”
OPEC+
The alliance also emphasized its readiness to reintroduce previously implemented voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd, announced in November 2023, should market fundamentals weaken.
The eight OPEC+ countries participating in this round of adjustments include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. Together, they produce more than 40 percent of the world’s crude oil.
The alliance reaffirmed its collective commitment to full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), the agreement that underpins OPEC+’s coordination framework. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will continue to oversee compliance and ensure that countries compensate for any overproduction.
“The eight participating countries also noted that this measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation.
“They confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024.”
OPEC+
OPEC+ further announced that it will hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, conformity levels, and compensation progress, with the next major ministerial meeting scheduled for 30 November 2025.
Market Context
The decision to pause output increases follows a series of measured hikes throughout 2025, as OPEC+ cautiously increased production in response to what it called “healthy market fundamentals.”
In March 2025, the alliance decided to proceed with an earlier planned output increase in April, marking its first major decision since 2022. This came amid renewed pressure from global consumers, particularly the United States, to lower oil prices.
By October 5, 2025, the group approved another 137,000 bpd hike for November, citing “steady global growth and low oil inventories” as justification for maintaining supply flexibility.
The December increase announced this week represents the third consecutive monthly increment drawn from the 1.65 million bpd voluntary cut pool established in April 2023.
The upcoming production pause for Q1 2026 reflects OPEC+’s recognition of seasonal trends in global oil consumption. Demand typically softens in the first quarter as heating needs in the Northern Hemisphere decline and refineries undergo maintenance.
OPEC+’s strategy also comes against the backdrop of increased U.S. shale production, which continues to cap price gains, and geopolitical uncertainties, including lingering Middle East tensions and potential disruptions to global shipping routes.
As the global energy market prepares to enter 2026, OPEC+ remains focused on balancing stability and flexibility in its production strategy.
The group’s reaffirmation of its commitment to the Declaration of Cooperation and continued monitoring of market dynamics suggest a readiness to adapt to evolving conditions.
For now, however, the alliance appears intent on maintaining a delicate balance, avoiding oversupply, supporting prices, and ensuring that both producers and consumers benefit from a stable global oil market.
