Global nickel mine production is expected to grow by 6.8 per cent to reach 2,427.4 thousand tonnes (kt) in 2021, owing to COVID-19-related lockdowns and restrictions, according to GlobalData.

This projection reflects a vast improvement in nickel production after registering an estimated 4.2 per cent decline to 2,272 thousand tonnes (kt) in 2020.

Global Nickel, the leading data and analytics company indicated that this growth trajectory is supported by output growth from Indonesia and the Philippines and Brazil. Specifically, output projections for Indonesia, the Philippines and Brazil reflect increases of 16.3 per cent, 5.1 per cent, 24 per cent respectively.

In contrast, production is expected to decline in Russia and South Africa by a whopping 13.8 per cent and 15.8 per cent respectively.

Commenting on this, Vinneth Bajaj, Associate Project Manager at GlobalData noted:

“Combined production from Indonesia, the Philippines and Brazil is expected to increase from a collective 1,160 thousand tonnes (kt) in 2020 to 1,316.8kt in 2021– an increase of 13.5 per cent.
“The expansion of Indonesia’s nickel industry will support the increase in production [and] the resumption of production at mines in the Philippines.
“Overall, Indonesia and the Philippines will remain as the largest sources of nickel globally. Together with Russia, New Caledonia and Australia, these five countries account for almost three-quarters of the global total.”
Vinneth Bajaj, Associate Manager , GlobalData

Nickel production to increase further in the medium-term

Looking ahead, nickel production over the forecast period is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3 per cent. By this improvement, global nickel output will then jump to 2,730.6 thousand tonnes (kt) in 2025.

According to GlobalData, Indonesia, Russia, Canada and the Philippines will be the key contributors to the output growth in the medium-term. Combined production in these countries is expected to increase from a forecasted 1,607 thousand tonnes (kt) in 2021 to 1,818.4 thousand tonnes (kt) in 2025.

“Projects with potential to commence operations during the forecast period include the Araguaia Nickel project in Brazil… and is currently awaiting a final investment decision (FID). The US$402.1 million project will have an annual nickel production capacity of 14.5 thousand tonnes (kt) and is expected to commence operations in 2022.
“During early 2021, the project’s infrastructure including the award of construction licenses for the transmission line and the water pipeline were approved by the company. Tenders for the supply of key equipment and services have been completed for approximately US$230 million.”
Vinneth Bajaj, Associate Manager , GlobalData

According to GlobalData, the Aquila Nickel project in Indonesia, which is wholly owned by Solway Investment Group, has obtained its regulatory approvals and permissions.

The project which costs US$57 million project will have an annual nickel production capacity of 16.6 thousand tonnes (kt) and is expected to commence operations in 2023, GlobalData indicated.