Ghana’s crude exports have been scheduled at 153,000 b/d in January, 2022 in line with December, 2022 export schedule, according to loading programmes.
January exports of the country’s oil output from Jubilee are unchanged on the month at 92,000 b/d across three cargoes. One cargo each of TEN and Sankofa are scheduled in January, 2022 for a combined 61,000 b/d, also unchanged from December, 2021.
Andy Devine, a Crude Oil Market Reporter is cited to have said: “Traders expect London-listed independent and Africa-focused Tullow Oil to market the January parcel of TEN and Italian integrated firm Eni to market the Sankofa shipment.”
Since March 2020, the volume of crude oil that is produced in Ghana has followed a downward trend. Oil production in the country reached 173,000 barrels per day in 2020.
The reduction in crude oil production is due to the adverse impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on upstream operations in 2020 which affected the Greater Jubilee and TEN Fields approved work programme for 2020.
Crude oil production capacity to decline in 2022
As of April 2021, crude oil production capacity in Ghana stood at 184 thousand barrels per day. The volume was below what was measured in April 2020, when the country’s capacity reached 204 thousand barrels per day. Oil production slipped to an average of 182,814 barrel per day in 2020 from 195,724 b/d in 2019.
Based on data from the Bank of Ghana, crude exports rose from GHS2,407.6 million in October 2020 to GHS3,192.0 million in October 2021, representing a 32.6 per cent increase on a year-on-year basis. This reflects the rise in crude oil prices over the period.
However, the effects of global oil dynamics emanating from the US-led coordinated global release of strategic oil reserves, the rise in cases of COVID in some countries in Europe- Austria and the Netherlands, and OPEC’s expected response of the release will affect the price of crude in the coming year. This notwithstanding, prices of crude are expected to remain elevated, far above 2020 levels.
Based on crude oil projections in Ghana, output will drop to about 146,500 barrels per day (b/d) in 2022 from 150,000 b/d currently after COVID-19 restrictions slowed development activities. However, it is expected that drilling and completion of wells will be expanded to five or six wells next year from four this year, helping production to rebound back to 2020 levels in 2023.
The 2022 Benchmark crude oil output is 59.51 million barrels (163,044 barrels of crude oil per day), based on a three-year simple average of each producing field’s actual and projected outputs in line with the Petroleum Revenue Management Act (PRMA), according to the 2022 budget.
Likewise, the 2022 Budget Statement’s projections for the near-to-medium term show that the contribution of oil to GDP will reach 4.2 per cent in 2022, 1.2 per cent in 2023, -2.8 per cent in 2024 and 5.6 per cent in 2025.
