The Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Musa Dankwah has provided an in-depth analysis of the organisation’s recent opinion polls, emphasising their reliability and the consistency of outcomes across different polling methodologies.
His remarks address concerns about the validity of the data and offer a comparative perspective on candidate performance, voter bases, and trends ahead of the December 2024 general elections.
“Looking back at the October 2024 national opinion poll which was cross-sectional, meaning we interviewed different people each time we visited, and comparing the result to the longitudinal poll, where we speak to the same voters, week on week, what are the differences in terms of the outcomes when the performance of the candidates are compared to their bases?”
Musa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics
In the October poll, Musa Dankwah noted that 36% of respondents identified as New Patriotic Party (NPP) voters, while Dr Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB) garnered 37.3% support. This indicates that Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia attracted an additional 1.3% support from voters outside his party’s base.
However, Musa Dankwah noted that the National Democratic Congress (NDC) accounted for 33% of the sample, yet former President John Dramani Mahama (JDM) secured a commanding 51.1% support, showing an additional 18.1% backing from voters outside the NDC.
Insights from the Final Telephone Poll
Moreover, the renowned pollster with expertise across three continents pointed out that in the longitudinal telephone poll, which involved tracking the same voters week by week, the results demonstrated similar trends with slight variations.
Here, Musa Dankwah revealed that the ruling New Patriotic Party made up 35% of the sample, and Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia secured 40.5%, showing an improved margin of 5.5% extra support from voters outside the NPP base.
He also noted that the National Democratic Congress maintained 33% of the sample, and former President John Mahama’s support rose slightly to 51.9%, reflecting an additional 18.9% backing from other parties, solidifying his dominance.
Musa Dankwah pointed out that Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia has shown improvement in securing extra support, but this gain did not come at former President John Mahama’s expense. Instead, it appeared to draw from supporters of other candidates, including Alan Kyerematen (AKK) and Nana Kwame Bediako.
He underscored the stability of former President John Mahama’s numbers in contrast to the potential volatility of Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia’s support, which could fluctuate based on the performance of Alan Kyermaten and Nana Kwame Bediako on election day.
“This data suggests that while DMB has improved in attracting extra support, it has not dented JDM’s stronghold. Instead, DMB’s numbers could be influenced by how AKK and NKB perform,” Musa Dankwah explained.
Highlighting the robustness of Global InfoAnalytics’ methodologies, Musa Dankwah emphasized that both the cross-sectional and longitudinal polls delivered similar outcomes.
“Lovers of data science, two different polling methodologies have delivered, yet again, similar outcomes. Folks, this is not a fluke,” he remarked, reinforcing the credibility of the data.
The data underscores the resilience of former President John Mahama’s support and the potential volatility surrounding Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia’s performance.
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