Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, has revealed that data from two polls shows a shift in voter intentions among NPP supporters since Dr. Matthew Opoku Prempeh’s nomination.
Dankwah stated that specifically, the data indicates a 2% increase in NPP voters supporting John Dramani Mahama, a 1% decline in support for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, a 2% decline for Alan, and a 1% increase for Nana Bediako.
“Napo was nominated after Global InfoAnalytics had conducted polls in Essikado-Ketan, Sekondi and Effia as part of the national tracking poll”.
“A special poll, which had just been concluded in Effia, Sekondi and Essikado-Ketan had given us the opportunity to critically analyse the two polls to see the possible effect of Napo in those areas following his statement about Kwame Nkrumah and subsequent campaigning in the region as well as manifesto launch which was held in the region”.
Mussa Dankwah
According to Mussa Dankwah, the polls also showed a shift in voter intentions among NDC supporters, with a 1% increase in those backing John Mahama.
Additionally, NDC support for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia dropped by 2%, while support for Alan Kyerematen and Nana Bediako rose by nearly 1% each.
Mussa Dankwah noted that the shifts in voter intentions are particularly pronounced among floating voters, with significant changes observed over the period.
Specifically, John Mahama’s support among floating voters surged by 23%, while Dr. Bawumia’s increased by 7%; in contrast, Alan’s support plummeted by 26%, Bediako’s declined by 9%, and other candidates saw a collective increase of 4%.
Dankwah reported that among supporters of other parties, John Mahama’s support rose by nearly 5%, Dr. Bawumia’s increased by 9%, Alan Kyerematen’s plummeted by 55%, and Nana Bediako’s surged by 36%, with support for other candidates also increasing by 5%.
Meanwhile, among respondents who declined to disclose their party affiliations, the poll showed a massive shift towards NKB, with a 70% increase, while JDM dropped by 36%, DMB by 25%, and AKK by 10%.
Mussa Dankwah noted that the “Napo effect” – Dr. Matthew Opoku Prempeh’s influence on the ticket – has had a significantly negative impact on floating voters, as evidenced by polls in the Ashanti region.
He stated that indicated that there is an interesting time ahead for the political landscape.
Central Region Polls Reveal Jane Naana’s Effect
Furthermore, Mussa Dankwah revealed that a comparative analysis of poll data in the Central region, conducted between July and August 2024, sheds light on the potential impact of Jane Naana Opoku-Agyeman on the election.
Dankwah noted that this analysis, which covers nearly two months of campaigning, indicates an interesting trend in voter interest and preference.
He observed that among NPP voters, support for John Dramani Mahama decreased by nearly 0.5%, while support for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia increased by 8%.
Meanwhile, support for Alan Kyerematen (AKK) dropped by 1.5%, Nana Bediako (NKB) fell by 5.3%, and support for other candidates decreased by 0.8%.
“For NDC voting for John Dramani Mahama, it is up by 11.4%, NDC voting for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia down 4.7%, NDC for Alan Kyerematen down 1.9%, NDC for Nana Bediako 2.1% and NDC for others down 2.8%”.
“Among floating voters in the Central region, the shift is again very huge. John Mahama’s support among floating voters increased by whopping 62.8%, Dr. Bawumia’s dropped by 10.5%, Alan dropped by 40.2%, Bediako dropped by 4.2% and others dropped 8%”.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah reported that among supporters of other parties, John Mahama’s support decreased by 1.1%, while Dr. Bawumia’s surged by 46.6%.
In contrast, Alan Kyerematen’s support plummeted by 46.1%, Nana Bediako’s increased by 11.8%, and support for all other candidates collectively dropped by 11.2%.
A shift in voter intentions was observed among respondents who didn’t disclose their party affiliations, Mussa Dankwah observed.
Specifically, John Mahama’s support surged by 56%, while Dr. Bawumia’s fell by 9.3%, Alan Kyerematen’s dropped by 16.5%, Nana Bediako’s plummeted by 25.8%, and support for all other candidates decreased by 4.4%.
“The difference according to the data is very clear…one is safe to conclude that Jane Naana has had positive effect on the ticket”. – Mussa Dankwah
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