One year ago, Niger’s state television broadcasted a striking announcement: a group of military officers had overthrown the West African nation’s elected government, citing security and economic crises as their primary motivations.
Yet, these issues have not only persisted but worsened, affecting the lives of Niger’s 26 million residents, who are among the world’s youngest and poorest.
The junta’s decision to sever ties with key international partners has exacerbated these problems.
Sanctions and suspended security and development support, which previously accounted for nearly half of Niger’s budget, have left the nation struggling.
The coup in Niger is the most significant in a series of recent military takeovers across Africa’s Sahel region, a vast, arid area south of the Sahara Desert that has become a global hot spot for extremist violence.
Once considered the West’s last reliable ally in the fight against jihadists linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group, Niger is now isolated.
The U.S. has abandoned a crucial drone base and withdrawn its forces ahead of a September deadline, while more than 1,000 French troops have also been told to leave.
A key China-backed pipeline project, which was expected to transform Niger into an oil exporter, has stalled due to the prevailing insecurity and uncertainty.
International support, particularly from the European Union, had comprised close to 40% of Niger’s budget. With that support now gone, residents are left in dire straits.
“We are only looking for something to live on,” lamented Ibrahim Amani, a resident of the capital, Niamey. Prices have surged, making life even more challenging.
Initial support for the coup, especially from the country’s youth, has given way to growing frustration.
However, public protests are absent, likely due to fears of retaliation by the junta, which continues to detain deposed President Mohamed Bazoum.
The junta’s plan to charge Bazoum with treason has drawn widespread international criticism.
“There’s a real depressing effect on the ability of the government to provide services and on the ability of businesses to thrive,” said Daniel Eizenga, a research fellow with the African Center for Strategic Studies.
The military leaders promised a three-year transition to civilian rule, but analysts doubt this timeline will be met.
Niger, along with neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso, is distancing itself from traditional West African allies. These three countries, after expelling French forces, are now forming an anti-Western, pro-Russian alliance.
“The geopolitical dynamics of the region have completely changed,” noted Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.
Russia’s ‘Tentacles’ Growing In Sahel Region
Russia’s presence in the Sahel is growing, but its ability to compensate for Niger’s lost security support is limited.
“Niger’s army is running out of material with the retreat of Western forces, and the Russians – who have sent troops to Niger as its new security partner – can only partly compensate.”
Ulf Laessing
Insecurity on the ground has intensified. Niger has become a prime target for extremists, with violent killings by rebels and militia groups more than doubling from 770 to 1,599 in the year following the coup, according to the U.S.-based Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED).
Extremists have carried out nearly five times as many large-scale attacks involving at least 10 deaths.
“Al-Qaida and IS militants have consolidated control over more territory since the junta took power by taking advantage of security force limitations that the withdrawal of Western support has contributed to,” reported the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project.
This mirrors the situation in Mali and Burkina Faso, where military juntas have also failed to address insecurity despite using it as a justification for their power grabs.
Economically, Niger’s import-dependent economy is reeling from sanctions and border closures imposed in the coup’s aftermath.
The future of hundreds of millions of euros in support from the European Union remains uncertain, affecting agriculture, education, security, businesses, and humanitarian efforts, as well as migration management.
Eizenga of the African Center for Strategic Studies warned that neither Russia nor countries like Iran, with whom Niger’s junta is seeking closer ties, are likely to fill the gap left by former partners.
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