A new poll on Friday, March 4, 2022, showed a surge in support for French President, Emmanuel Macron, ahead of presidential elections next month (April 2022), a day after he confirmed he will be running for a second term.
The survey measuring voting intentions from the BVA polling group revealed that President Macron has gained a massive five points in the last fortnight ahead of the first round of voting in April 10, 2022, with voters seemingly impressed by his handling of the Ukraine war crisis.
It suggested that Macron would finish first with 29 percent gap in the first round and later, triumph in a second run-off vote irrespective of his opponent, with far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen seen as his closest challenger.
“Emmanuel Macron is benefiting from his triple status as head of state, protector of the people and their values, (and) head of the army and national diplomacy.”
BVA Polling Group
President Macron confirmed his plans to seek a second term on Thursday (March 3, 2022) evening in a letter addressed to voters, suggesting he was seeking their “trust” for another five years “to defend our values that are threatened by the disruptions of the world.”
The French leader acknowledged that the election campaign would be overshadowed by Russia’s war on its neighbour, Ukraine, which has seen him take a prominent role in Western efforts to find a diplomatic solution.
“Of course, I will not be able to campaign as I would have liked because of the context.”
French President, Emmanuel Macron
Some of his opponents welcomed the declaration, less than 24 hours before the stipulated deadline, while others scoffed at it.
Socialist Party candidate, Anne Hidalgo, stated that “The democratic debate, of one programme versus another that I have been calling for for months, can finally take place.”
Manuel Bompard, the campaign manager of hard-left candidate, Jean-Luc Melenchon, intimated that “We might have expected a letter of apology beforehand.”
Other Issues of Concern
A host of recent polling figures have shown a rise in Macron’s personal ratings over the last fortnight and a slim majority of French people have approved of his handling of the Ukraine crisis.
A poll on Thursday, March 3, 2022, by the Kantar group, showed the proportion of voters who expressed confidence in him, had risen five points to 45 percent. This feat makes it Macron’s highest level since August 2017.
The war has also served to weaken some of his opponents such as Le Pen, Zemmour and Melenchon who have all either defended Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, in the past or promoted their proximity with him.
Antoine Bristielle, a public opinion expert at the Jean-Jaures Foundation, a Paris think-tank, disclosed that the Ukraine crisis meant the campaign was focused on “international issues which are an area of strength for Emmanuel Macron.”
“It’s better for him than social issues or questions around household income.”
Antoine Bristielle, Public Opinion Expert
But many observers are now beginning to fear that the war may eclipse discussion of domestic issues which voters are known to be concerned about, such as crime, unemployment or immigration.
As it is, little is known about the 44-year-old (Emmanuel Macron) head of state’s programme for the next five years. However, he has promised more tax cuts in his declaration letter, changes to the education system and a further strengthening of the European Union.
“The main risk for Macron is being re-elected relatively easily but without a proper campaign. If the debate is not settled in the ballot box, then it gets settled on the streets.”
Antoine Bristielle, Public Opinion Expert
After his election in 2017, Macron claimed he had a strong mandate to push through major tax and labour market reforms, but opponents openly questioned his legitimacy because of low turn-out and his earlier campaign promise, which is likely to slim victory margin in the first round.
After a year and half of relatively minor protests, Macron faced a national revolt by so-called “Yellow Vest” protesters in late 2018. The protesters occupied roundabouts across the country and organised often violent demonstrations in the capital and other cities.
Some pollsters have predicted that abstention rates, which hit a record in 2017, could be even higher in this year’s vote on scheduled for April 10 and 24, 2022 respectively.
Far-right candidate Eric Zemmour accused him of serving “a term for nothing”, adding that “our country has become unlivable and you have become the cause.”
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