2024 stands as a pivotal moment for Ukraine, having signaled the entry of the war in to its third year.
Aid from the United States as well as other Western states has been a strategic move, helping Ukraine defend against the aggression it faces from its eastern neighbor.
However, Ukraine has been struggling in its offensive due to shortage of weapons.
Europe has admitted that it will fall far short of a plan to deliver more than one million artillery shells to Ukraine by March, instead hoping to complete the shipments by the end of the year.
House Republicans in Washington have also blocked a $61bn (£48bn) package of military and economic assistance to Kyiv for four months.
Much like a ship in turbulent waters, Ukraine finds itself navigating choppy diplomatic seas, acutely aware that a change in the US leadership could alter the course of its struggle for sovereignty.
The stakes are high, and the outcome of the upcoming U.S presidential election could be the linchpin that defines the future trajectory of Ukraine, especially in the context of aid and the ongoing conflict.
The possibility of Trump returning to the White House spells uncertainty for Ukraine’s lifeline of aid and the potential withdrawal of aid, like a rook removed from the board, leaves Ukraine vulnerable to external pressures.
Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy described 2024 as “a turning point” and said the outcome of November’s US presidential election would be a key factor.
If Donald Trump wins a second term in office, he is expected to pull the plug on aid to Kyiv.
“This year will define the format of the ending of the war,” Zelenskyy said.
Nonetheless, Zelenskyy said that he was hopeful the US Congress would soon pass the aid package, which includes badly needed replacements of the air defence missiles used to protect Kyiv and other cities.
“I’m sure there will be a positive decision. Otherwise it will leave me wondering what kind of a world we live in,” Zelenskiy said, stressing that almost all of the cash was being spent inside the US with arms producers.
“We count on Congress’s support,” he added.
For the first time, Zelenskyy confirmed the number of Ukrainian losses since the start of Russia’s full-scale war on February 24, 2022.
Zelenskyy said that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in action.
He admitted that March and April would be “difficult” and predicted Moscow would probably launch a major offensive in May. Given the right weapons, Ukraine could also counterattack.
An additional 10 US Patriot systems would radically change the situation and allow Ukraine to defend its lengthy frontline, he said.
Nonetheless, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said he was “deeply convinced that the US will not abandon Ukraine in terms of financial, military and armed support.”
No Prospect Of Negotiations With Moscow
Moreover, Zelenskyy disclosed that there was currently no prospect of negotiations with Moscow.
“Putin won’t call me. He doesn’t want to end the war,” he said.
Zelenskyy’s peace formula envisages the withdrawal of Russian troops to Ukraine’s 1991 borders including the return of Crimea, reparations and a war crimes tribunal.
However, the Kremlin says four Ukrainian provinces in the south and east – including some territory it does not control – are now Russian and that Ukraine has to accept “new realities.”
Zelenskyy also said that a peace summit would be held soon in Switzerland, followed by another meeting later on a “different continent.”
Russia is unlikely to attend.
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