Global electricity demand has risen by 5 per cent, and the use of coal contributes near half, thus, threatening to scale CO2 emissions from the power sector to record levels in 2022, a new report by IEA reveals.

Previously, it was published that renewables are expanding quickly, but the fact remains that the rate of expansion is not strong to satisfy growing electricity demand this year, the report notes.

Electricity demand saw a vast decline in 2020 by about 1 per cent due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic but now the global economic recovery is accelerating demand, and to grow by 4 per cent in 2022.

Meanwhile, the majority of the increase in electricity demand is expected to come from the Asia Pacific region, primarily China and India.

Accordingly, current policies and economic trends show that electricity generation from renewables including hydropower, wind and solar PV is on track to grow strongly. This growth trajectory is estimated at 8 per cent in 2021 and by more than 6 per cent in 2022.

However, with this strong growth, renewables will only be able to meet around half the projected increase in global electricity demand over those two years, according to the report.

Renewable power growth overtaken by coal demand

Moreover, fossil fuel-based electricity generation is set to cover 45 per cent of additional renewable demand in 2021 and 40 per cent in 2022. As a result, carbon emissions from the electricity sector which fell in both 2019 and 2020 are forecast to increase by 3.5 per cent in 2021 and by 2.5 per cent in 2022, which would take them to an all-time high.

“Renewable power is growing impressively in many parts of the world, but it still isn’t where it needs to be to put us on a path to reaching net-zero emissions by mid-century,” remarked Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security.

“As economies rebound, we’ve seen a surge in electricity generation from fossil fuels. To shift to a sustainable trajectory, we need to massively step up investment in clean energy technologies, especially renewables and energy efficiency.”

More so, in the pathway set out in IEA’s recent Roadmap to Net Zero by 2050, close to three-quarters of global emissions reductions between 2020 and 2025 take place in the electricity sector. In order to achieve this decline, the pathway calls for coal-fired electricity generation to fall by more than 6 per cent a year.

However, coal-fired electricity generation is set to increase by almost 5 per cent this year and by a further 3 per cent in 2022, potentially reaching an all-time high, according to the report. Also, gas-fired generation, which declined 2 per cent in 2020, is expected to increase by 1 per cent in 2021 and by nearly 2 per cent in 2022.

It is evident the growth of gas lies behind that of coal because it plays a smaller role in the fast-growing economies in the Asia Pacific region and it faces competition from renewables in Europe and North America.