South Africa’s ruling ANC party, looks set to deliver its worst ever electoral performance since the end of apartheid, with support expected to dip below 50 percent in local government polls.
With more than 50 percent of polling stations reporting following Monday’s fiercely contested elections, the African National Congress stood at slightly under 46 percent of the vote, according to electoral commission figures.
Voters were called to elect local representatives responsible for hot-button issues including: electricity, housing, water and sanitation.
Poor service delivery has dogged South Africa for years while senior ANC party members, including former President Jacob Zuma, faces corruption investigations. Unemployment also hit the crescendo at 34.4 percent.
Frustrations with the ANC government played out in July, when widespread rioting and looting erupted, following Zuma’s imprisonment for contempt after refusing to testify in a corruption investigation. The unrest claimed at least 354 lives.
Until 2016, the ANC had won more than 60 percent at every election since the country’s first multi-racial vote in 1994 when Nelson Mandela was sworn in as president.
The party’s support slipped from 62 percent in the 2011 municipal elections to 54 percent during the 2016 vote.
ANC Blames on COVID-19
Xolisa Ngwadla, statistics analyst with the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) stated that the party has dropped from previous performance.
“The national picture is that we see the ANC dropping from their 2016 performance of 54.1 percent to 46.8 percent”.
Xolisa Ngwadla
In the intervening time, the ANC has accepted its fate, blaming the poor showing on the coronavirus pandemic, apathy and electricity blackouts, imposed by the country’s energy utility Eskom.
Jessie Duarte, ANC’s Deputy Secretary-General bemoaned the current trend, but assured that the party will bounce back.
“I don’t think we could have done better, it’s of course not ideal to be under 50 percent, we are hoping that we will edge more towards 50 percent but we will live with whatever is the outcome, that’s democracy.
“We believe that some of our own voters stayed away from the polls, but we are not looking at this as a great tragedy, we are looking at this as an opportunity to improve.”
Xolisa Ngwadla
Analysts are not surprised at the ANC’s showing as William Gumede of the Democracy Works think tank noted that, “former liberation movements, such as ANC which spearheaded the fight against apartheid, have a shelf life.”
“Normally after about three decades, (ex-liberation movements) lose their dominance, we are around there with the ANC, which is now in power for 27 years.”
William Gumede
The largest opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, also looked set to lose support, the partial electoral commission figures showing them receiving 22.7 percent, down from 29.9 percent in 2016.
DA leader John Steenhuisen said that ‘the takeaway’ from the election “is the collapse of the ANC below 50 percent”.
“What it does show is, we can bring them below 50 percent, an energised opposition can make inroads… We must use this as an opportunity to build momentum going into the next election.”
John Steenhuisen
In 2016, the ANC lost control for the first time of the country’s economic hub and its largest city Johannesburg, as it did in Pretoria and the southern city of Port Elizabeth.
The losing streak has continued, with the ANC’s support forecast to erode further in Johannesburg from the 44.7 percent it garnered in the previous vote to 36.3 percent.
Final tabulations from the country’s sixth municipal vote since the end of apartheid are expected at the close of today, November 3, while official results will be announced on Thursday, November 4.
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