The Institute for Energy Security (IES) has predicted the downward revision of the prices of petrol and diesel between 3% and 10% at the pumps, from Thursday, 16th March, 2023.

A statement issued by the IES indicated that petrol prices will fall to GHC12.60 while diesel will reduce to GHC13.40 per litre. LPG prices are also expected to decline to GHC14 per kilogramme.

In the pricing-window under assessment, the IES Marketscan picked Goil, Total, Shell/Vivo, Engen, Nasona, and Puma as OMCs with the highest-priced fuels on the market; with Star Oil, Goodness, Benab, Allied, and Zen Petroleum representing some of the OMCs with the least-priced fuels on the market.

“On the back of the falling international liquid fuel prices as observed on the global S&P platform, and the local currency’s improved performance against the U.S. dollar, the Institute for Energy Security (IES) estimates a further drop in the prices of gasoil, gasoline and LPG respectively. Prices are set to fall between 3% and 10% at the pumps following a decline in the activities of price indicators in the last 2 weeks.

“The last two weeks has seen price indicators on both the domestic and international fronts falling and this can translate into some price reductions at the pumps for various petroleum products. The domestic fuel market prices are projected to fall.”
IES

World Oil Market

The international crude oil benchmark Brent fell to about $83.87 from about $84.14 per barrel over the last two weeks, representing a marginal drop in the average prices in the window under review. The commodity which traded at about $86 per barrel in the mid of the window declined to as low as $79 per barrel at the start of Tuesday 14^th March, 2023.

The Global Standard & Poor (S&P) Platts price averages monitored during the first pricing-window of March 2023 show the prices of Gasoline, Gas Oil, and LPG at about, $793.75, $812.85, and $625.25 per metric tonne respectively. This is a significant decline from the previous window prices for all petroleum products. Gasoline price dropped at about -4.53%, Gas Oil, -2.06%, and LPG -8.98% a further decrease in price of Gasoil and Gasoline, whereas an increase in the price of LPG.

Fuel prices have seen some reduction at the pump

Local Forex

Data from the IES Economic Desk on the domestic foreign exchange (Forex) market over the last two weeks show the Ghana Cedi traded at about Gh¢12.66 to the U.S Dollar from Gh¢12.88 at the start of the window making some marginal gain to close the window.

It can be recalled that the first pricing-window for March 2023 offered some respite to petroleum product consumers on the domestic market. Prices for Gasoline and Gasoil drop significantly allowing domestic consumers to enjoy some relief. The Institute for Energy Security’s (IES’) monitoring of various Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) for the pricing-window under review finds the national average price for Gasoline and Gasoil asGH¢13.53 and GH¢13.69. The national average price of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as monitored on various LPG Marketing Companies (LPGMCs) sold for Gh¢15.44 per kilogram

Meanwhile, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the end of last year, oil prices have been trapped in a narrow range, wiping all the gains. Fears of a significant oil supply shock from Russia dominated market sentiment and trader positioning for the most of last year. Even after the EU embargoes and G7 price controls on Russian crude oil and petroleum products went into place, oil prices did not rise.