“Today we have a significant decision of international justice. In a case that has real prospects. This is a historic decision that will lead to historic responsibility.” This is how Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenkyy welcomed the news of the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Children’s Rights Commissioner, Maria Lvova-Belova.
In the ICC’s words, the Russian President and the Children’s Rights Commissioner for his country are “allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine.”
The court said there “are reasonable grounds to believe that Mr. Putin bears individual criminal responsibility” for the alleged crimes, for having committed them directly alongside others, and for “his failure to exercise control properly over civilian and military subordinates who committed the acts.”
Most members of the international unions, such as the EU have long sought to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and most importantly, for the ongoing conflict to end. This has triggered the imposition of some sanctions on Russia.
In spite of these sanctions, Russia has not halted its so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine, violating the Geneva Conventions in the process. Desperate situations, they say, call for desperate measures. The ICC had to take a desperate measure; issue the arrest warrant.
With ICC’s issue of arrest warrant, Putin becomes the third head of state to face ICC charges while in office. The late Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi and Sudan’s former President, Omar al-Bashir, are the other two. It is notably the first issued against a leader of one of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council.
The Ukrainian President disclosed that his own country’s investigations also suggested the Kremlin had direct involvement in the forced deportation of children into Russia. The Russian government, however, claims it’s all practically a humanitarian move, aimed at saving Ukrainian children in a war zone.
So far, Moscow’s response has been to dismiss the warrants as meaningless. The country denies that its forces have committed any atrocities in Ukraine, and Spokesman Dmitry Peskov labelled the ICC’s decision as “outrageous and unacceptable”.
It seems unlikely that the ICC’s actions will have any impact on the Russian leader. Firstly, Russia does not recognize the jurisdiction of the ICC. Also, the ICC does not conduct trials in absentia, so that option is not available.
Nonetheless, Putin’s ability to travel is now severely restricted, as the 123 signatory countries to the Rome Statute that created the ICC are now obligated to arrest him if he sets foot in their territory. ICC President, Piotr Hofmanski thus averred that the countries are “obliged to execute arrest warrants issues by the court.”
As long as he stays put in Russia, he faces no risk of being arrested but, given the fact that his freedom of movement is already severely limited by international sanctions against him, he is unlikely to show up in a country that could carry out the arrest.
However, in a seeming show of defiance, Putin even made a visit to Mariupol, a city captured from Ukraine, which earned the scorn of Mykhailo Podolyak, Chief of staff for Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“The criminal is always drawn to the crime scene. While the countries of the civilized world are announcing the arrest of the ‘war director’ in the event of crossing the border, the organizer of the murders of thousands of Mariupol families came to admire the ruins of the city and mass graves.”
Mykhailo Podolyak
Let’s not be quick to forget that pride goes before a fall. Russia touting itself could make the ground all the more slippery, which ultimately leads to a great fall.
What This Means To Russia-China Relations
Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to meet with Putin in Moscow this week. The visit to Russia will be Xi’s first foreign trip since he was elected to a record third term as China’s President.
Chinese foreign ministry called the visit “a journey of friendship, further deepening mutual trust and understanding between China and Russia, and consolidating the political foundation and public opinion foundation of friendship between the two people for generations.”
Beijing and Moscow have intensified ties in steps that began shortly before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with a meeting between the two leaders in Beijing during last year’s Winter Olympics at which they declared a “no limits” partnership.
Since then, China has repeatedly sided with Russia in blocking international action against Moscow for the Ukraine conflict. In a bid to cast itself in a neutral light, China offered a peace plan for Moscow and Ukraine that was essentially ignored.
However, China’s refusal to condemn the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine leaves a gaping hole of doubt concerning Beijing’s neutrality stance.
Unless the charges are withdrawn or Putin is acquitted, the arrest warrant blemish could taint not only Russia’s image but China’s also. Seeing as China is recovering from its draconian zero-COVID policy which adversely affected its economy, building ties with someone accused of war crimes could be hazardous.
Even though, it is highly improbable, it is not entirely impossible for Putin to be arrested. It may take a longer period of time, but the possibility is not ruled out. Putin would have to be a President forever (which is beyond bounds of possibility) for him to evade arrest.
Seeing as Russia is up to the neck in western sanctions, future government, in a quest to restore normal relations and end sanctions would face pressure to surrender Putin.
When push comes to shove, Vladimir Putin can face the fate of former Yugoslavian President, Slobodan Milosevic, who was ousted and extradited to The Hague to face trial on charges of genocide and war crimes in Bosnia, Croatia and Kosovo.
READ ALSO: Serbia’s President Criticizes ICC’s Arrest Warrant For Putin
