South Africa’s unemployment crisis deepened as the country’s unemployment rate, already the highest globally, climbed to 32.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to official government data released on Tuesday, February 20, 2024.
The Quarterly Labor Force Survey revealed a concerning surge in the number of unemployed individuals of working age in South Africa, reaching 7.9 million.
This marked an increase of 46,000 people without jobs during the final three months of 2023, up from the previous rate of 31.9%.
The spike in unemployment comes as a significant setback for the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party, especially in light of the upcoming elections where they face their most challenging electoral test to date.
The plight of youth unemployment in South Africa remains dire, reaching a staggering 59.4% among individuals aged 15-24 by the end of the previous year.
Despite being Africa’s most advanced economy, the nation grapples with the persistent challenge of generating employment opportunities for its younger workforce.
The African National Congress (ANC) has held power since the abolition of the apartheid regime in 1994.
However, over the past three decades, the party’s support base has gradually eroded, primarily due to its inability to address the needs of millions of impoverished citizens.
Several polls are indicating a potential historic shift in South African politics as the ANC faces the prospect of falling below the 50% vote threshold in the upcoming national election.
Should the ANC fail to secure a majority, the party would be compelled to form a coalition to retain governance and secure a second and final five-year term for President Cyril Ramaphosa.
However, South Africa’s main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, is exploring the possibility of its coalition agreement with numerous other smaller parties, hoping it might force the ANC out of government completely.
The warning signs for the ANC emerged during the 2021 local elections when the party experienced a dip below 50% for the first time, indicating a shifting political landscape and heightening the stakes for the upcoming national election.
In contrast, support for opposition political parties has grown over the past decade, rising from 21% to 48%.
Notably, the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) have gained ground. The EFF, in particular, has shown significant electoral performance, with its support reaching 16% in the recent survey
The date of this year’s election has not yet been announced. It’s expected to take place between May and August.
The Declining Youth Support For The ANC
Of the 40.0 million working-age population, more than half (around 51.6%) fall within the youth category (aged 15-34 years).
This demographic group, often referred to as the ‘born free’ generation, grew up after the end of apartheid and did not directly experience the racial segregation and oppression of that era.
Hence, they have no historical ties with the ANC, unlike their parents.
In 2015, the ANC enjoyed 63% support, but recent polling data by Ipsos places their current support at 33%.
This decline is particularly pronounced among young voters who did not directly experience apartheid.
The youth are particularly concerned with three key issues: unemployment, education, and corruption.
While access to education has improved, the quality remains uneven. Many schools lack resources, qualified teachers, and proper infrastructure.
The “born frees” face challenges in accessing quality education, which impacts their future prospects.
Additionally, rampant corruption within the ANC has eroded public trust. Unauthorized expenditures and mismanagement of funds have plagued local governments.
In the 2019-20 financial year, only 27 out of 257 municipalities received a clean audit, highlighting the extent of corruption and financial missteps.
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