As Ghana braces for the upcoming December 7 polls, the National Democratic Congress flagbearer, former President John Dramani appears to lead comfortably to secure victory to occupy the country’s seat of government, the Jubilee House.

Since last year, almost all polls and research conducted by both International and local groups have put the National Democratic Congress flagbearer, former President John Dramani Mahama ahead of his closest contender, Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia.

A recent poll analysis by Global Info Analytics affirmed the National Democratic Congress flagbearer’s dominancy ahead of the December 7 polls with Mr Mahama receiving a significant surge in support while the ruling New Patriotic Party flagbearer, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia’s support dwindles.

According to the poll’s analysis, even though former President John Dramani Mahama secured 53.2 percent as against 29.6 percent secured by his closest contender, Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia during its December 2023 polls, the National Democratic Congress flagbearer’s support from voters has now appreciated to 53.6 while the New Patriotic Party’s flagbearer voters support dropped to 25.9 percent based on its analysis..

These figures underscore the growing confidence in Mr Mahama’s candidacy, signifying a potential shift in the political landscape come December 7.

One of the significant revelations of the analysis is the intricate nature of voter alliances and affiliations. The report delved deep into the preferences of voters across party lines, floating voters, and those undecided, providing invaluable insights into the intricacies of Ghana’s political landscape.

Furthermore, the poll analysis revealed a nuanced understanding of voter behavior, dissecting preferences based on party affiliation and coalition dynamics.

Notably, the National Democratic Congress flagbearer’s appeal extends beyond traditional party lines, with significant support stemming from the ruling New Patriotic Party supporters and sympathizers, which is a testament to Mr Mahama’s ability to garner bipartisan appeal and broaden his electoral base.

For instance, analysis of the coalition of voters for each of the candidates showed that for voters who intend to vote for former President John Dramani Mahama across the country, 10.3 percent are supporters of the ruling New Patriotic Party while 66.1 percent are affiliated to the opposition party.

Again, 15.8 percent of voters who intend to vote for Mr Mahama are floating voters, while 0.7 percent are affiliated with other parties with 7.1 percent of such voters not disclosing their party affiliations

NPP’s Dwindling Support

However, amidst former President John Dramani Mahama’s ascendancy, the analysis showed very significant challenges facing the governing New Patriotic Party and its flagbearer, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia.

The polls analysis revealed that, despite being the ruling party’s flagbearer, Dr Bawumia faces an uphill battle in consolidating support, with a significant portion of the ruling party’s supporters and sympathizers showing an inclination towards the National Democratic Congress flagbearer.

Here, for instance, in the coalition of voters who intend to vote for Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, the poll’s analysis disclosed that only 76.5 percent out of them are affiliated to the New Patriotic Party while 4.3 percent are affiliated to the opposition National Democratic Congress with 12.1 percent being floating voters, 0.3 percent belonging to other parties and 6.8% who did not disclose their party affiliations.

Moreover, the polls analysis underscored the pivotal role of undecided and floating voters in shaping the outcome of the elections.

With a sizeable portion of the electorate yet to pledge allegiance to any candidate, the race remains fluid, highlighting the importance of strategic mobilization efforts by political parties in the run-up to the polls.

The Executive Director of the Global InfoAnalytics, Musa Danquah commenting on the poll’s analysis strongly asserted that per its findings it appears that it is the ruling New Patriotic Party itself that is making the 2024 presidential race difficult for Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia to win.

He noted that nearly 60 percent of Mr Alan Kyerematen’s coalition in the Greater Region are voters affiliated to the ruling New Patriotic Party while former President John Dramani support from voters affiliated to the New Patriotic Party reside in the Ashanti region.

According to Mr Danquah, the leader for Movement for Change, Alan Kyerematen would undoubtedly have a severe effect on the ruling New Patriotic Party’s chances of winning the 2024 general elections.

“Now looking at the data from the two most populous regions in Ghana from the December 2023 national poll, showing support of each candidate by party affiliation and the makeup of their coalition reveals the brutal reality of AKK’s effect on the NPP chances in 2024.
Musa Danquah, Executive Director, Global Info Analytics

In light of these findings, both the National Democratic Congress and New Patriotic Party must recalibrate their strategies and mobilization efforts.

For the opposition National Democratic Congress, capitalizing on Mr Mahama’s burgeoning support base and broadening its appeal across party lines will be crucial in maintaining momentum and clinching victory.

On the other hand, the governing New Patriotic Party must take immediate steps to address the challenges posed by internal divisions and further devise innovative strategies to shore up Dr Bawumia’s candidacy and galvanize the party’s base.

It is important to state that, the significance of polls in shaping electoral outcomes cannot be overstated. Beyond serving as barometers of public opinion, polls offer invaluable insights into voter preferences, coalition dynamics, and the ever-evolving political landscape.

Therefore, the adoption of astute strategies and proactive mobilization efforts will be paramount for the various political parties, particularly the opposition National Democratic Congress and the ruling New Patriotic Party vying for supremacy at the December 7 polls.