Dr. John Osae-Kwarpong, a Fellow at the Ghana Center for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana) has outlined warning signals for the governing New Patriotic Party based on a comprehensive national poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics.
Dr. Osae-Kwarpong’s insights shed light on various aspects of the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections, juxtaposing them against data from the most recent Afrobarometer survey dubbed Round 9, 2022.
“The outcome of the Brexit Vote and the election of Donald Trump fueled scepticism about the utility of polls. However, this has not stopped pollsters from conducting polls.
Global Info Analytics released a comprehensive national poll on April 8 about the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections. Donna Brazile, an American political strategist once said, ‘In modern politics, polls often serve as the canary in the mine—an early warning signal of danger or trends’”.
Dr John Ossae Kwapong, CDD-Ghana Fellow
He began his insights by stating that his analysis of the poll reveals that a significant portion, 60%, of respondents hold Dr. Bawumia, the New Patriotic Party’s flagbearer partially responsible for the economic challenges faced by the country, emphasizing that such sentiment was particularly notable among core supporters of the ruling party with 36% sharing such view.
Regional Voting Patterns
Furthermore, the Ghana Centre for Democratic Development Fellow indicated that his analysis of the poll result revealed that in the critical Ashanti Region, where the ruling New Patriotic Party traditionally garners substantial support, 23% of voters do not intend to vote in the upcoming election, potentially posing a challenge to the ruling party’s electoral prospects.
He further noted that such sentiments mirrors sentiments expressed in the Afrobarometer survey, where 21% of respondents from the region expressed similar intentions of not voting for the ruling New Patriotic Party in the December 7 polls.
Dr Ossae Kwapong also recounted that a concerning trend that emerged during his analysis regarding party loyalty pointed out that 25% of self-identified supporters of the ruling party are either undecided or not intending to vote, as compared to only 3% among National Democratic Congress (NDC) supporters.
According to him such discrepancy is consistent with findings from the Afrobarometer survey.
Touching on voters who voted for President Akufo-Addo in the previous election, Dr Kwapong disclosed that only 60% intend to vote for Dr. Bawumia in the upcoming election while in contrast, 92% of voters who voted for former President John Dramani Mahama intend to vote for him again.
He emphasized that such a trend underscores the importance of voter retention for the governing New Patriotic Party’s electoral strategy.
Among floating voters, those not aligned with any political party, Dr Kwapong stated that the National Democratic Congress flagbearer former President John Dramani Mahama leads Dr. Bawumia by a substantial margin of 59% to 20%.
He strongly stressed how such development underscore the significance of the opposition party’s flagbearer appealing to independent voters, who play a crucial role in determining electoral outcomes in the country’s general elections.
Impact of Independent Candidacy
Moreover, Dr. John Osae-Kwarpong, a Fellow at the Ghana Center for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana) asserted that the decision of Alan Kyerematen to run as an independent candidate in the upcoming eLctions presents a potential challenge for Dr. Bawumia.
He noted that the founder and leader for the Movement for Change per his analysis of the poll attracts approximately 7.5% of the vote, with the development having the tendency to impact the outcome of the December 7 polls, particularly due to Mr Kyerematen’s affiliation with the incumbent party.
While commending the transparency of the poll’s methodology, Dr. Osae-Kwarpong noted with concerns certain demographic imbalances in the sample, including gender distribution and age groups.
However, he acknowledged the efforts made to correct such biases through data weighting and advocated for greater sensitivity to such factors, especially considering the sampling frame provided by the Electoral Commission’s 2023 voters register.
The analysis, he emphasized serves as a comprehensive examination of the warning signals for the ruling New Patriotic Party as revealed by the recent poll, offering valuable perspectives for understanding the dynamics of the upcoming elections in the country.
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