In an insightful interview with the Vaultz news, Dr. Ken Ahorsu, a Senior Research Fellow at the Legon Centre for International Affairs and Diplomacy (LECIAD), provided a compelling assessment of Ukraine’s recent military actions in the Russian region of Kursk.
Dr. Ahorsu doubts that Ukraine will gain much from its incursion into Russian territory because “a lot of Ukrainian soldiers have been taken hostage in the process.”
“So, personally, what I am foreseeing is that in the next week or two weeks, there is going to be a more serious conflagration of the crisis and from the perspective that Ukraine may be on the losing side.
“That’s my technical expectation.”
According to Dr. Ahorsu, Ukraine’s incursion; which came at a time when both Russia and much of the world were caught off guard, could drastically alter the trajectory of the ongoing conflict.
He stated that Russia “will have other things to worry about” since it is now going to defend its territory instead of being on the offensive against Ukraine.
“By so doing, another front of the war has been opened,” he said.
“Secondly, the war itself is heading towards a stalemate,” he averred.
Speaking with the Vaultz news, the International Affairs Expert noted that there is far right politics and populism in Europe and in North America, which shows that the war was not necessary.
“And if you listen to the rhetoric of Zelensky and the rest, the two parties are now more amenable to settling, coming to a peace agreement through dialogue and negotiations. And Ukraine also feels that if it’s able to occupy some territories of Russia, just as Russia is occupying territories of Ukraine, then they will be able to use that to bargain to a more fruitful solution in the sense that they could say, ‘I hand over your territory to you. If you hand over my territory to me.’
“But that is superficial in the sense that, Russia is a stronger nation, and Russia has more arsenals than it’s been using in the Ukraine war so far.”
Dr. Ken Ahorsu
“So, largely, what has happened is that the dynamics of the war has changed,” he added
Also, Ahorsu opined that Ukraine’s claim of having no interest in occupying Russian land means that its incursion is only a tactical operation, which is, calling on Russia to withdraw from all Ukraine territories that have been occupied so that Ukraine will also withdraw.
Highlighting the broader geopolitical implications, Dr. Ahorsu noted that the western world, which is supporting Ukraine could be affected.
He raised concerns about the potential for the conflict to draw in NATO countries, suggesting that China stands to benefit the most from such a large-scale confrontation, as a larger war involving NATO and Russia might weaken Western influence and provide the Asian country with a strategic advantage.
He added that the ramifications of such a war will affect other countries in the world.
Expert Urges Increased Diplomacy
Moreover, Dr. Ahorsu emphasized the urgent need for heightened diplomacy to manage the conflagration of the conflict because it will “lead to the destruction of most of the world.”
He suggested that the United Nations and other countries like Hungary, countries like Serbia, which are more neutral in the present conflict, “must up their diplomatic pressure as to bring about a peaceful resolution.”
“It’s becoming clear that people are now talking more about peace, more about negotiations, more about settlements, more about ceasefire, and they have identified a role for China to play.”
Dr. Ken Ahorsu
“But whether China has that desire to play such a role is another question,” he stated.
As the conflict continues to evolve, it becomes crucial for all involved parties and the international community to closely monitor developments and work toward de-escalation to prevent further destabilization and loss.
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