The Central Region of Ghana has long been recognized as a critical swing region, playing a decisive role in determining the outcome of presidential elections in the Fourth Republic.
In an exclusive interview with the Vault News, Dr. Ishmael Kwabla Hlovor, a Political Science Lecturer at the University of Education, Winneba, delved into the intricate dynamics of this region and its potential impact on the upcoming 2024 general elections.
Dr Hlovor began by highlighting the unique historical role of the Central Region in Ghana’s electoral landscape.
“The Central Region has consistently picked the winner in presidential elections, meaning that whichever direction the region votes, that candidate tends to win the national election,” he noted.
However, he was quick to caution that this pattern may not necessarily hold in the 2024 elections, given the evolving political dynamics.
Dr Hlovor emphasized that while the Central Region has been pivotal in past elections, the upcoming polls present new challenges and opportunities due to shifts in the traditional strongholds of the two major political parties, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
According to him, while the Central Region’s vote could be crucial, other factors, including voter turnout in party strongholds and the strategies employed by the parties, will also play significant roles.
“So in as much as central is important, the new electoral landscape, doesn’t necessarily guarantee that immediately a political party wins Central Region, you are winning the election. What Central does is that it gives the party that is to win the added vote because, even if you get the added vote without your stronghold turning out to vote, you may not win.
“But if your stronghold turns out to vote and you get the added vote; that is those regions that are swing, such as central and a few other regions, you will be able to win the election. So the Central Region can make a lot of impact on an election, because to win an election, you need the swing regions and that is why central becomes critical for any party in the sense that once central swings, it gives a lot of advantage to the political party that it swings to”.
Dr. Ishmael Kwabla Hlovor, a Political Science Lecturer at the University of Education, Winneba
The Changing Dynamics in Party Strongholds
Dr. Hlovor observed that the NPP has made significant inroads into the northern regions, traditionally strongholds of the NDC, asserting that this shift in voter dynamics in the north could impact the overall election results.
“The NPP has made inroads into regions like Upper East, Upper West, Savannah, and the Northern Region,” he pointed out.
According to him, this development underscores the importance of voter turnout in these areas, which could offset losses in other regions, such as the Central Region.
He further elaborated on the significance of voter turnout in strongholds like the Ashanti Region for the NPP and the Volta Region for the NDC.
“Turnout in these regions is very important. If the support base of a party is galvanized, resulting in high voter turnout, it can lead to victory, even if the party loses in swing regions like the Central Region”.
Dr. Ishmael Kwabla Hlovor, a Political Science Lecturer at the University of Education, Winneba
Central Region: Still a Critical Battleground
Despite the changing dynamics, Dr. Hlovor underscored the continued importance of the Central Region.
He argued that even though a political party winning the Central Region is not a done deal to guarantee a national victory, the region, however, remains essential for any party seeking to add to its core support base.
He pointed out that the NDC strategical selection of Professor Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang, a prominent figure from the Central Region, as its vice-presidential candidate gives the NDC a potential edge in the region.
However, Dr Hlovor also highlighted the challenge posed by the NPP’s strong presence in the region, particularly through influential figures like Majority Leader, Honorable Alexander Afenyo Markin, and Kennedy Agyapong, MP for Assin Central.
“Now one of the key issues we should watch over in this election is how people, react to the current hardship that they are facing. If people perceive that this hardship is caused by the current government, then the tendency for change is high. But then it also depends on the campaign strategy the ruling party adopts ahead of the election.
“How does the NPP convince the people that irrespective of the economic turmoil, irrespective of the economic crisis, they are still the best to govern. And in terms of getting the Central region, it depends on how they would deploy the best of their tools; The deployment of Kennedy Agyapong in the Central Region will be key in either swinging the region back to the NPP or losing it”.
Dr. Ishmael Kwabla Hlovor, a Political Science Lecturer at the University of Education, Winneba
Dr. Hlovor, however, acknowledged the complexities of the ruling party deploying Honorable Kennedy Agyapong following his earlier criticisms of the Vice President during the NPP primaries.
The Broader Electoral Landscape
Dr. Hlovor’s analysis extended beyond the Central Region to other critical areas, particularly Greater Accra and the coastal regions.
He pointed out that while the Central Region remains a significant battleground, the outcome of the election will also depend on how parties perform in Greater Accra, a highly cosmopolitan region where local politics and economic conditions heavily influence voting patterns.
“NDS winning Greater Accra by a huge margin could counterbalance the impact of the large voter base in the Ashanti Region for the NPP,” he suggested, emphasizing the importance of the region in the overall electoral equation.
Dr. Hlovor also noted the potential influence of the coastal regions, which he observed are more inclined towards the NDC.
“The coastal belt is a slippery spot for the NPP,” he remarked, adding that while the NPP must work exceptionally hard to secure these areas, the Vice President’s efforts have shown some promise.
In conclusion, Dr. Hlovor emphasized that the 2024 elections would be determined not just by traditional voting patterns but by the strategies employed by the parties and the perception of the electorate.
“This election is about how Ghanaians feel about the performance of the NPP,” he stated. He suggested that the NPP’s success would hinge on its ability to convince voters that they remain the best option despite the current economic challenges.
As Ghana gears towards the 2024 general elections, the outcome from the Central Region, along with other key battlegrounds, could very well determine the future direction of Ghana’s political landscape.
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