For the past six weeks, Ghana has experienced a persistent undersubscription of its Treasury Bills (T-Bills), a development that has raised concerns about the government’s ability to secure the necessary funds to manage its fiscal responsibilities.
While this trend might seem alarming, particularly from a fiscal perspective, Mr. Isaac Kwasi Mensah, a Financial Analyst and Portfolio Manager at SIC Financial Services Limited, in an interview with the Vaultz News has stated that the continuous undersubscription could actually set the stage for a significant boost in the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE), potentially fueling a bull market.
“Treasury Bills have long been considered one of the safest investments, offering modest returns with minimal risk. However, the ongoing trend of undersubscription suggests that investors are becoming increasingly wary of the current economic environment. That notwithstanding, the equities market can benefit from this downturn, potentially fueling a bull market on the Ghana Stock Exchange.”
Mr. Isaac Kwasi Mensah
Explaining the possible causes for the government’s inability to meet it’s treasury bills targets, Mr Kwasi Mensah noted that the economic environment in Ghana has been marked by rising inflation and concerns over the stability of the cedi. These factors, he said are likely making T-Bills less attractive, as the real returns after accounting for inflation are diminished.
Despite their traditional appeal, the analyst averred that T-Bills currently offer relatively low yields. “In an inflationary environment, these returns may not be sufficient to entice investors who are seeking to preserve and grow their capital,” he stated.
Mr Kwasi Mensah, moreover asserted that investors are increasingly looking for higher returns, which may drive them away from government securities and towards other investment vehicles, such as equities. “This shift away from T-Bills is creating a unique situation where the GSE could emerge as a prime beneficiary”.
Potential Benefits for the Local Equity Market
Mr Kwasi Mensah further pointed out that as investors move away from T-Bills, they will need to find alternative investment opportunities that offer higher returns.
“The GSE, with its diverse array of companies across various sectors, presents a compelling option. This could lead to several positive outcomes for the stock market. Again, with T-Bills becoming less attractive, a portion of the capital that would have been allocated to government securities could be redirected to the stock market. This influx of capital would likely increase trading volumes on the GSE, enhancing liquidity and making the market more attractive to both local and foreign investors.
“Higher trading volumes typically lead to better price discovery and can contribute to a more efficient market. This increased activity could also encourage more companies to list on the GSE, further expanding the market’s breadth and depth.”
Mr. Isaac Kwasi Mensah
The analyst noted that as demand for equities increases, stock prices are likely to rise. According to him, this could create a virtuous cycle, where rising prices attract more investors, driving prices even higher. “The anticipation of better returns from stocks could draw in retail investors, institutional investors, and even foreign investors who are looking for growth opportunities in emerging markets,” he said.
Mr Mensah opined that sectors on the GSE that are perceived as resilient or growth-oriented, such as banking, telecommunications, and consumer goods, could see particularly strong interest. He observed that these sectors often perform well in times of economic uncertainty, making them attractive to investors seeking stability and growth.
Mr Mensah noted that while the broader market stands to benefit, certain sectors on the GSE could experience more pronounced effects as capital flows into equities.
“The financial sector is likely to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of this trend. Banks and insurance companies often perform well in a growing economy, and their stocks could attract investors looking for stable yet potentially lucrative returns. Additionally, with increased trading activity, financial institutions involved in brokerage services could see higher revenue.
“Equally, companies in the consumer goods and retail sectors may also see increased interest, particularly if inflation stabilizes and consumer spending remains strong. These sectors are often viewed as defensive, offering steady returns even in uncertain economic times.”
Mr. Isaac Kwasi Mensah
Inherent Risks
While the shift from T-Bills to equities could fuel a bull market on the GSE, it is not without risks. The analyst warned that government’s continued difficulty in raising funds through T-Bills could lead to fiscal challenges, including higher borrowing costs and increased inflationary pressures. “If these issues are not managed carefully, they could dampen the positive impact on the stock market”.
“As the government struggles to meet its funding needs through T-Bills, it may be forced to offer higher yields to attract investors. This could increase the government’s borrowing costs, potentially leading to a larger fiscal deficit. If the deficit grows too large, it could lead to austerity measures or other economic policies that might impact corporate profitability and investor sentiment.”
Mr. Isaac Kwasi Mensah
Mr Mensah noted that if the government resorts to printing money to finance its deficit, inflation could rise, eroding purchasing power and impacting consumer demand. However, he said companies that operate in essential sectors or that have pricing power may still perform well, making their stocks attractive to investors.
Meanwhile, it could be recalled that the Government’s struggle to meet its Treasury Bill auction targets has persisted for the sixth week in a row, as the latest auction raised GHS 5.22 billion, narrowly missing the GHS 5.31 billion target by GHS 91 million.
This ongoing shortfall highlights growing concerns about the government’s ability to secure adequate funding through short-term debt securities. Investor sentiment was most robust for the 91-day Treasury Bill, which garnered bids totaling GHS 3.72 billion.
The 182-day bill attracted GHS 1.25 billion, while the 364-day bill saw bids amounting to GHS 252 million. Despite the high interest, the undersubscription signals underlying challenges in the government’s efforts to meet its funding needs.
Yields on the T-Bills experienced minor adjustments across board, with the 91-day bill inching up by 0.06% to 24.78%. The 182-day bill also saw a modest increase of 0.06%, settling at 26.68%, while the 364-day bill declined slightly by 0.04% to 27.81%.
In the intervening time, the government plans to raise GHS 5.08 billion in its upcoming Treasury Bill auction, with a continued focus on the 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day bills to align with market demand.
Clearly, from the analysis, the persistent undersubscription of T-Bills in Ghana presents a complex but potentially beneficial situation for the Ghana Stock Exchange. As investors seek alternatives to low-yielding government securities, the GSE could become a focal point for capital, leading to increased trading activity, rising stock prices, and greater market participation.
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