The Scottish National Party (SNP) is heading towards a potential defeat in the 2026 Holyrood election unless it undertakes a significant overhaul of its policies and internal structure.
Senior members within the party have voiced concerns that without a clear and decisive strategy, the SNP’s once dominant position in Scottish politics could be in serious jeopardy.
Despite the urgency of the situation, doubts have been raised about whether the party’s leader, John Swinney, has the necessary strength to implement the sweeping changes needed.
As the SNP gears up for its annual conference at the end of August, more than 20 influential figures within the party, including current and former ministers, senior activists, and those who lost their seats in July’s disastrous general election, have expressed their fears.
The general election results were a significant blow to the SNP, which saw its representation in Westminster reduced from 46 MPs to just nine, while Labour gained ground across Scotland.
Many within the party now predict that a similar fate could befall them in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections if immediate action isn’t taken.
“The way things are now, we run the real risk of not winning in 2026,” warned one senior MSP. “We have to change course, and John needs to be decisive.”
Fears Of Infighting As Election Looms
Stewart McDonald, a former MP for Glasgow South, who had already cleared his Westminster desk before 4 July due to his certainty of defeat, highlighted the scale of the challenge ahead.
He said, “What does an SNP that has learned its lesson look and sound like? I don’t think it’s possible to overstate the scale of the challenge we are facing as a party.”
The challenge is exacerbated by the difficulty of countering Labour’s message of change, particularly among voters eager to see the Conservatives ousted from Downing Street.
According to one former MP, convincing voters to stick with the SNP under such circumstances was “incredibly difficult if not impossible.”
Additionally, the party’s reputation has taken a hit due to ongoing police investigations into SNP finances, including the arrest of former leader Nicola Sturgeon and the embezzlement charges against her husband, Peter Murrell.
The situation was further complicated by a recent expenses scandal involving former Holyrood health secretary Michael Matheson’s £11,000 iPad bill.
“I found myself on the doorstep trying to contextualize scandal after scandal,” recalled another former MP. Voters, disillusioned by the party’s controversies, told several candidates, “We expected better of your lot.”
Adding to the discontent among SNP supporters is the lack of progress on a second independence referendum and a disjointed campaign strategy. One former MP described the campaign as lacking focus, with “the message changing every 20 minutes.”
As the SNP prepares for its upcoming conference, there are concerns that the party will miss a crucial opportunity for reflection, with some fearing that any postmortem examination could devolve into infighting.
Morale within the SNP is reportedly low, with insiders describing a party “exhausted” by years in government. There is a pervasive worry that there simply isn’t enough time to turn the party’s fortunes around before the 2026 elections.
As the SNP grapples with these challenges, the question remains whether it can effectively communicate what it can and cannot achieve as a devolved government, especially with the Holyrood budget crisis looming large.
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