According to Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, two critical events in Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s campaign seem to have had a negative impact, particularly among floating voters and university-educated individuals.
Dankwah noted that the nomination of a running mate, which was expected to strengthen Bawumia’s position, may have backfired, causing uncertainty or dissatisfaction among this key voter bloc.
Additionally, a recent media encounter, which was intended to bolster his public image and clarify his policy positions, did not resonate as well as expected.
These factors, Dankwah suggested, have contributed to a decline in Bawumia’s appeal among these crucial segments of the electorate, potentially affecting the overall momentum of his campaign.
“Polling data published since the running mate was selected points to the fact that, it has done nothing to appeal to voters outside the NPP base, and even that has not stopped 11% of the party base from voting for John Dramani Mahama, Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako”.
Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics
Dankwah further noted that the NPP appears to be losing ground among floating voters and individuals who decline to disclose their party affiliations, both of whom collectively account for 27% of the electorate, according to the poll.
This trend raises significant concerns for the party, as these voter groups are often pivotal in determining election outcomes, especially in a competitive political landscape.
Floating voters, who may not be loyal to any particular party, are crucial in swaying results, while those who withhold their affiliations can indicate disillusionment with the existing political choices.
According to Dankwah, should the NPP fail to engage and win over these demographics, it could face considerable challenges in the upcoming elections.
This underscores the need for a strategic approach to reconnect with these critical segments of the voter base.
“In the current poll, DMB lost 2% of the floating voters and 12% of those who did not disclose their party affiliations, majority of whom we believe are NPP sympathizers”. – Mussa Dankwah
Bawumia’s Media Engagement Harms Support Among Graduates
Furthermore, Mussa Dankwah stated that the recent media engagement by Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, coupled with the subsequent fallout, has led to a significant drop in support for the Vice President among voters with university degrees.
Dankwah pointed out that this demographic has consistently backed Dr. Bawumia since polling began in January 2022, making this decline particularly concerning.
This decline is particularly concerning, as educated voters are often influential in shaping public opinion and electoral outcomes.
The combination of the media encounter and the surrounding controversy may have created doubts among this crucial group, prompting them to reconsider their support.
“John Dramani Mahama for the first time since July, now led in this demography, 46% to 43% in July 2024, and has extended his in October 2024 to 48% to 38%, a 10-point advantage.
“Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia is losing ground in this demography to JDM and NKB, a development that must be a great concern for this campaign. What went wrong?”
Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics
As such, the pollster indicated that the Vice President’s campaign requires serious introspection to chart a way forward, especially with nearly two months remaining before the elections.
This reflection is essential to address the current challenges and realign the campaign strategy to regain lost support among key voter demographics.
Dankwah indicated that some of these developments and shifts in the polls are contributing to the steady performance of John Mahama, while the candidacies of Alan Kyerematen and Nana Bediako are introducing instability into Dr. Bawumia’s polling numbers.
This dynamic suggests that the competition is intensifying, potentially complicating Bawumia’s efforts to solidify his support as the election approaches.
Meanwhile, the pollster highlighted that a specific demographic, particularly those impacted by the Domestic Debt Exchange Program (DDEP), could significantly influence the Bawumia campaign.
This group’s experiences and concerns regarding the economic ramifications of the DDEP may lead to shifts in support, making it crucial for the campaign to address their issues effectively.
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