A nationwide survey conducted by independent researcher, chartered accountant, lecturer and financial economist Dr Evans Duah has projected Kennedy Ohene Agyapong as the leading contender in the New Patriotic Party presidential primaries scheduled for January 31, 2026.
The study, carried out between August 2025 and January 9, 2026, offers a detailed assessment of delegate preferences and the internal dynamics shaping the party’s leadership contest after the 2024 general election.
Dr Duah noted that data collection protocols were kept consistent across all three waves of the study, ensuring comparability over time and reducing the risk of methodological bias influencing the results.
To address uncertainty transparently, the analysis was conducted under two analytical lenses. The Worst Case scenario applied a conservative treatment to undecided and undisclosed respondents, while the Best Case scenario proportionally allocated such respondents across the candidates.
Dr Duah said this dual framework was intended to allow for a more robust interpretation of trends rather than dependence on a single point estimate. Under the Best Case scenario in the final wave, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong recorded 52.59 per cent of projected delegate support.
Former Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia followed with 36.24 per cent. Dr Bryan Acheampong secured 8.60 per cent, while Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum obtained 2.05 per cent.
Kwabena Agyei Agyapong placed last with 0.52 per cent. On the basis of these figures, the study concludes that Kennedy Agyapong is on course to win the primaries and emerge as the party’s flagbearer.
Dr Duah explained that the research adopted a multi wave tracking design to reflect how political preferences among party delegates evolve over time rather than change abruptly. According to him, post election realignments are often gradual, shaped by reflection on past outcomes and reassessment of future prospects.
Full Nationwide Coverage
The tracking approach therefore allowed the study to measure both early reactions and later consolidation as the primaries draw closer. The survey achieved full national coverage across all 16 administrative regions and 276 constituencies.
It targeted the entire universe of 40,988 NPP delegates eligible to vote in the primaries. Out of this number, 31,556 interviews were successfully completed, validated, and retained after rigorous quality assurance checks.
The findings suggest that the contest has been fundamentally shaped by an early post 2024 reassessment among party delegates. According to the study, delegates increasingly placed emphasis on electability, coalition reach, regional balance and the perceived capacity to lead the party’s recovery following its electoral defeat.
These considerations appear to have driven shifts in support observed across the three survey waves. Kennedy Agyapong’s rise is attributed to the largest positive net movement recorded during the study period.
The research shows steady gains in delegate dense regions such as Ashanti, Greater Accra, Eastern, Central, Western and Volta. Dr Duah links this growth to effective post election positioning, consistent messaging centred on resilience and job creation, and sustained grassroots engagement in regions that carry significant delegate weight.
Bawumia’s Net Decline
By contrast, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia experienced a net national decline. While he maintained dominance in his northern strongholds, the study indicates erosion of support outside these areas. Delegates in southern and middle belt regions appear to have reassessed his electoral viability following the 2024 defeat.
Limited expansion beyond his core base, combined with structural regional weighting within the party, constrained his ability to rebuild national momentum during the period under review.
Dr Bryan Acheampong is characterised by the study as a systemic shaper rather than a direct challenger for the lead. His support followed a non linear path, declining initially before rebounding in later waves.
The research attributes his performance to organisational networks and competitiveness in balanced regions. Although his numbers were insufficient to mount a leadership challenge, his presence narrowed margins between the leading candidates in certain constituencies.
Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum recorded low single digit support, concentrated mainly in parts of Ashanti and Greater Accra. The study suggests that his backing is rooted in sectoral and relational networks which, while loyal, have not translated into broader national appeal at a time when delegates are focused on wide scale electoral viability.
Kwabena Agyei Agyapong ranked last with less than one per cent support nationwide. His participation is described as largely symbolic, with no discernible regional clustering or momentum capable of influencing the overall outcome of the primaries. Commenting on the findings, Dr Duah said the data shows a clear transition in the internal contest.
“This study documents a transitioned contest from fluid reassessment to structured consolidation, grounded in verified data and transparent assumptions.
“Kennedy Agyapong’s lead exemplifies how early post-loss judgments and strategic engagement in delegate-dense regions drive durable outcomes, providing a factual terrain for the primaries ahead.”
Dr Evans Duah
The survey’s conclusions differ from an earlier poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics, which placed Dr Bawumia ahead of Mr Agyapong. As the primaries approach, the contrasting findings underscore the fluid nature of internal party contests and the importance of methodology and timing in shaping polling outcomes.
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