A newly published report has sounded an urgent warning for Europe, the UK, and Ukraine, advising them to prepare for the potential consequences of Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House.
According to the report, these nations must establish a “NATO bank” to bolster collective defense spending in case Trump dramatically shifts US foreign policy in Europe.
The report, authored by UK and German think tanks, outlines the real possibility that a second Trump presidency could see a reduction in US defense commitments to Europe, a push for a peace deal that leaves parts of Ukraine under Russian control, or even a complete withdrawal from NATO.
Such scenarios, the report suggests, would have dire implications for intelligence sharing and the effectiveness of NATO’s Article 5, the collective defense clause that requires member states to come to each other’s aid in the event of an attack.
“Trump’s first term was littered with withdrawn treaties, tariffs on allies, and praise for authoritarian governments,” said Sam Goodman, one of the authors of the report. “European leaders need to practically and preemptively bolster European defense, security, and resilience against a second-term Trump presidency.”
The report, compiled by the New Diplomacy Project and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, was published just before a critical meeting in London.
The meeting, scheduled for Thursday, October 10 will bring together the new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy. The discussions will focus on the future of European security and NATO cooperation amidst the ongoing war in Ukraine.
NATO Bank To Strengthen Defense Capabilities
Trump has made it clear that if he wins the 2024 election, he intends to push Ukraine to broker a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, leaving just three months to convince him that such a peace agreement would come at too high a cost.
The report stresses that Trump’s approach could prove damaging for Ukraine, especially if the price of peace includes significant territorial concessions to Russia.
To prepare for the potential fallout, the report proposes creating a multilateral lending institution — essentially a “NATO bank.” This institution would support defense spending across alliance members by offering low-interest loans and longer repayment options. “It could save nations millions on essential equipment purchases,” the report states, adding that the bank would be funded by NATO members in exchange for capital stock.
Beyond financial assistance, the UK is urged to strengthen its security ties with Germany, France, and the European Union. These upgraded agreements should focus on improving missile defense systems, joint-cyber capabilities, air-to-air refueling, aircraft maintenance, and airlift capabilities. Intelligence sharing within the Five Eyes alliance (comprising the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand) would also need to be reinforced.
The report also outlines other potential threats a second Trump presidency could pose, including a breakdown in diplomatic communication between the US and Europe, the withdrawal of US troops and military assets from Europe, and the introduction of tariffs that could destabilize the global economy and collapse the World Trade Organization.
Trump’s Ukraine Plan Faces Skepticism
The authors of the report, including Dr. Jade McGlynn from the New Diplomacy Project, are skeptical of Trump’s proposed peace plan for Ukraine. They believe that the Kremlin’s demands are likely to exceed Trump’s expectations and that widespread opposition to such a deal could make it politically untenable.
Dr. McGlynn emphasized the need for European leaders to take proactive steps, stating, “The UK government and European leaders need to actively consider measures now to preemptively support Ukraine in the event that Trump is re-elected.”
While Trump may face political constraints on his ability to deliver lethal aid to Ukraine, the report warns that he could still undermine NATO and use his peace plan to limit future support for Ukraine, potentially reshaping the balance of power in Europe.
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