The opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) has reported that a voter assessment survey conducted across various electoral areas and polling stations in the Tema West Constituency shows a slight increase in support for the party.
The survey highlighted that respondents value President Mahama’s policies, including the 24-hour economy.
Additionally, NDC noted that parents and first-time voters appreciate the “No Fee Stress” policy, while the Women’s Bank initiative attracts women who own small businesses.
The survey conducted by NDC Station also revealed that most respondents under 30 intend to vote for John Mahama, while a few over 30 base their support on the current economic conditions.
“From the results, NDC Station can predict a cumulative vote loss between 20 and 24 percent for NPP and a net vote loss of 8%, accounting for the party losing the upcoming election.
“However, NDC Station can predict a commanding cumulative vote gain between 20 and 23 percent and a net vote gain of 10% contributing to the party winning the general election on December 7”
NDC Station
The NDC contended that although the NPP has consistently won the Tema West Constituency, these victories have often been narrow, particularly from the 2000 to the 2020 elections, with the exception of 2016.
The opposition party highlighted that the 2020 voters’ register lists Tema West’s voting population at 120,258, underscoring the challenge the party faces.
According to the NDC, the 2016 election was an anomaly due to the unprecedented scale of the “dumsor” propaganda and the misleading corruption allegations against John Mahama by the opposition and some media outlets.
Additionally, the NDC’s ineffective communication and defense strategy also influenced the election outcome. “President Mahama’s reputation and integrity have since been cleared by the office of the special prosecutor although they were never in question in the first place”.
According to the NDC, the pattern gradually returned to normal after the 2016 election, aligning with previous electoral trends in the constituency.
NDC Highlights NPP’s 20% Vote Decline in Tema West
The opposition NDC further argued that the NPP has experienced a steady decline in its cumulative vote share, losing 20% over the last six elections in the Tema West Constituency.
The NDC highlighted that in the 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections, the NPP secured 64.30%, 58.80%, 53.67%, 50.70%, 57.77%, and 51.40% of the vote respectively, demonstrating a trend of declining support in the constituency.
The opposition further noted that, contrary to the popular belief regarding the NDC’s appeal in “elite” constituencies, the party has consistently increased its cumulative vote share in past elections, achieving an 18% gain in 2020.
“This phenomenon is characterized by the growing youthfulness of the Tema West voting population as the majority of the voting class are below 45 years and the party’s appeal to the growing youthful sect even in opposition.
“Such that, as the voting population grows, NDC marginal vote gain increases as NPP votes decrease. Maintaining this trajectory implies NDC will win Tema West both parliamentary and presidential sooner or later”.
NDC Station
The NDC asserted that the consistency in the percentage difference of votes can predict the overall winner of the general election.
For instance, in 2004 and 2008, the percentage difference in NDC votes was 4% (44.09% – 40.03%), and the NDC won the 2008 election.
Similarly, the percentage difference between NDC votes in 2008 and 2012 was also 4% (48.50% – 44.09%), leading to another NDC victory in 2012. Furthermore, the NPP won the 2016 election with a 7% difference in their votes between 2012 and 2016.
According to the NDC, the same pattern held true for the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Given this trend, the NDC emphasized the importance of remaining vigilant for the party’s potential victory on December 7. “Thus, the 4% difference may repeat or double as the NDC Station survey shows the party still maintains a commanding marginal vote increase in the Constituency”.
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