In a detailed defence of the most recent Global InfoAnalytics telephone poll, pollster and Executive Director of the firm, Musa Dankwah, highlighted the significant challenges the New Patriotic Party (NPP) faces as it heads into the December 2024 general election.
The results, which place former President John Dramani Mahama (JDM) of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) at 53.1%, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB) of the NPP at 39%, Alan Kyeremanten (AKK) at 1.7%, Nana Kwame Bediako (NKB) at 5.2%, and others at 1%, show a widening gap between the NDC and NPP, further amplifying concerns for the ruling party.
“We learnt from the methodology of Global InfoAnalytics that they had samples the following party affiliates: NPP (537) 34%, NDC ( 499) 32%, Floating voters (282) 18%, Other parties (55) 4% and Not Disclosed (196) 13%. So, NPP party affiliates were 34% of the people interviewed, however, DMB’s total vote share was 39%, crudely, 5% higher than NPP party affiliations in the sample.
“One could say that only 5% had come from other parties (NDC, FV, others and Not Disclosed). But note that not all 34% of NPP voters voted for DMB as we saw in the report, 9% were voting for JDM, and some for AKK and NKB”.
Musa Dankwah, Pollster and Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics
In his analysis, Musa Dankwah argued that the above development suggests that while Dr Bawumia has garnered some support from floating voters, other parties, and those who chose not to disclose their affiliation, it is far from enough to rival former President Mahama’s growing coalition.
Musa Dankwah emphasized the internal consistency of the poll, noting that Dr. Bawumia’s base is struggling to expand beyond traditional NPP supporters.
This fracturing within the NPP base, he noted has critical implications for the election, highlighting the growing discontent within the party as voters consider alternatives.
Mahama’s Broader Coalition: A Sign of Electoral Strength
Former President Mahama, on the other hand, per the poll has solidified a much broader coalition. With only 32% of the respondents identifying as NDC affiliates, his 53.1% vote share shows that an additional 21.1% of voters are coming from outside the traditional NDC base.
This, Dankwah noted, is a strong indicator of Mahama’s appeal beyond party lines, positioning him as the frontrunner in the race.
“This is very significant. Mahama’s ability to attract support from floating voters, other parties, and even dissatisfied NPP members points to a broad and diverse coalition that could very well deliver an electoral landslide unless Dr Bawumia can match this momentum in the remaining days.”
Musa Dankwah, Pollster and Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics
Adding to the challenge for the NPP is Dr. Bawumia’s struggle with floating voters. Dankwah noted that since Global InfoAnalytics began polling in 2019, Dr. Bawumia has consistently performed poorly with this critical group.
“DMB’s support from floating voters is the worst of any leading party candidate we’ve polled over the last five years,” he said.
NPP’s Overreliance on Akan Support: A Historical Challenge
The Global InfoAnalytics poll also exposed deeper structural issues within the NPP. According to Musa Dankwah, the party’s overreliance on its Akan base, which historically has been a key source of electoral success, is proving to be a stumbling block in this election.
He noted that the poll found that 61% of NPP voters are Akans, but of those voters, 47% back the NPP, 23% support the NDC, 14% are floating voters, 4% align with other parties, and 12% did not disclose their affiliations.
“I have heard leading broadcasters and political commentators argue that NDC and NPP must be at least 45%. First, let me point out the logical problem with this argument.
“First, this is the first time NPP is fielding a non-Akan candidate and we must in all sincerity not pretend we don’t know the problem with this choice though historical and laudable and must be the way forward if we are to move beyond ‘yen Akanfuo”.
Musa Dankwah, Pollster and Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics
Musa Dankwah strongly asserted that unless the Akans accept Dr. Bawumia wholeheartedly, he will not receive the same level of support as previous NPP candidates who were Akans.
He added that the fact that Alan Kyeremanten and Nana Kwame Bediako are still in the race only exacerbates this problem.
“The polls have also shown over the past 34 months that NPP problems in this election emanates from the eight ( 8 ) Akan-dominated regions. So, how do you expect DMB to be at the same level of support as his previous predecessors who have all been Akans? Some analysts can’t confront the issues boldly and are dancing around the problem’.
Musa Dankwah, Pollster and Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics
Demographics and the Changing Political Landscape
Another critical issue highlighted by Musa Dankwah is the shifting demographic makeup of Ghana’s electorate.
He disclosed that over 51% of voters are under the age of 34, and according to the poll, their allegiance to the two main political parties, NPP and NDC, is significantly weaker compared to previous generations.
Musa Dankwah explained that younger voters, many of whom are new voters, are increasingly choosing to be independent, rather than aligning with the traditional political parties.
“Demographers who look at such data will tell you that it is only a matter of time before that notion of 45% base disappears and I strongly believe that we have already gone past that time but people are still asleep. No one is guaranteed 45% anymore, you must fight for it”.
Musa Dankwah, Pollster and Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics
Implications for the Election
The poll results, according to Musa Dankwah, underscore the steep uphill battle facing the NPP. While some political commentators argue that the NPP and NDC should each secure at least 45% of the vote in a typical election, he questioned whether Ghana’s current political environment can still be considered “normal.”
With the NPP’s internal challenges, coupled with former President Mahama’s ability to build a broader coalition, Musa Dankwah suggested that a landslide victory for the NDC is becoming increasingly likely.
In conclusion, Musa Dankwah’s remarks not only defend the accuracy and consistency of Global InfoAnalytics’ latest poll but also provide a sobering analysis of the NPP’s prospects in the 2024 general election.
As the clock ticks down to Election Day, the NPP will need to address its internal divisions and broaden its appeal if it hopes to reverse the growing momentum behind former President John Dramani Mahama.
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