According to the Central Electoral Commission, Moldovans have narrowly chosen “Yes” in a referendum to secure the country’s membership of the European Union (EU), in a vote marred by allegations of Russian meddling amid the war in neighbouring Ukraine.

On Sunday, October 20, 2024, Moldova held key votes in a presidential election and a referendum on EU membership.

It marked a critical moment in the continuing struggle between Russia and the west for control over the small, landlocked nation in eastern Europe, home to 2.5 million people.

With nearly all votes counted on Monday, October 21, 2024, the “Yes” vote was slightly ahead at 50.39 percent, while the “No” camp – long ahead since the start of counting – stood at 49.61 percent, according to results published by the election commission.

Hours earlier, partial results had shown between 55 to 57 percent unwilling to commit to joining the EU.

Analysts said that ballots from the largely pro-EU diaspora were counted towards the end, giving the “Yes” campaign a last-moment push.

The vote was seen as a crucial test of President Maia Sandu’s pro-European agenda, as she had urged Moldovans to vote yes in the referendum to affirm EU accession as an “irreversible” constitutional goal.

The tight referendum result will disappoint Sandu’s supporters and her allies in Brussels.

An EU spokesperson said that Moldova’s referendum on joining the EU happened with “unprecedented interference” by Russia or its proxies. “Moldova was facing really unprecedented intimidation and foreign interference by Russia and its proxies ahead of this vote,” the spokesperson said.

As votes were being counted late Sunday, incumbent President, Maia Sandu blamed “foreign forces” for orchestrating an “unprecedented assault on our country’s freedom and democracy.”

“We have clear evidence that these criminal groups aimed to buy 300,000 votes – a fraud of unprecedented scale. Their objective was to undermine a democratic process.”
Maia Sandu

The run-up to the vote was overshadowed by a slew of allegations of election meddling.

In particular, officials in Moldova have accused the fugitive pro-Russian businessman Ilan Shor, a vocal opponent of EU membership, of running a destabilising campaign from Moscow.

Before the vote, Moldovan authorities took down online resources they said hosted disinformation, announced they had uncovered a programme in Russia to train Moldovans to stage mass unrest and opened criminal cases against allies of Shor.

Moldova applied to join the EU after Russia’s full-scale invasion of neighbouring Ukraine, which was condemned by Sandu and many in the country as tens of thousands of Ukrainian refugees fled to its capital, Chișinău.

Moldova officially began EU accession negotiations in June, though scepticism remains high about the country’s ability to implement the necessary democratic and judicial reforms in the near future.

Moldovan Presidential Election Fails To Determine Winner

Meanwhile, the Moldovan presidential election did not reveal a winner.

The election results showed the incumbent pro-western president, Maia Sandu, topped the vote with 41.91%.

Sandu’s main rival in the presidential election, former Prosecutor General Alexandr Stoianoglo, had 26.32 percent of the vote, setting the stage for a November 3 run-off in the poor ex-Soviet southeast European nation.

The vote goes to a run-off if no candidate clears the 50 percent mark.

Stoianoglo has said that, if elected, he would build a “balanced” foreign policy involving ties with the EU, the United States, Russia and China.

He is backed by the pro-Russian Socialists.

Pre-election surveys indicated that Sandu held a comfortable lead over Stoianoglo and other candidates, while polls suggested that about 60% of voters supported the pro-EU path in the run-up to the referendum.