Electorates’ sentiments play a crucial role in shaping the dynamics of presidential campaigns, particularly as Ghana approaches the December 2024 elections.
These sentiments reflect voters’ hopes, concerns, and expectations, influencing how political parties craft their messages, policies, and strategies.
Understanding and responding to these feelings can make or break a campaign, as they provide insight into voter priorities and the national mood.
Accordingly, IMANI Africa’s PULSE survey revealed that 72% of sentiments surrounding the NDC and candidate Mahama’s overall election campaign were positive.
The survey also indicated that discussions on Mahama’s electoral promises also saw a favorable response, with 70% of remarks being positive and 30% negative.
In terms of emotional reactions to the NDC’s promises, 41% of respondents expressed admiration, 36% remained neutral, and 18% conveyed feelings of disgust and anger combined.
“One of the central themes of candidate Mahama’s campaign is premised on asking voters to vote for change. Disregarding the neutral sentiments, 82% of measurable sentiments were positive in nature in the context of calls to vote for change.
“There appears to be a trend of religious leaders making prophetic declarations or offering prayers for John Mahama’s presidency. This could be influencing public opinion and potentially boosting support for the candidate.”
IMANI Africa
The survey suggested that Mahama’s campaign is heavily focused on economic policies, especially his “24-hour economy” strategy and a promise to reset the economy within 120 days of assuming office.
According to the survey, this emphasis seems to resonate with voters who are concerned about economic challenges.
Additionally, the campaign is making significant efforts to engage young voters, highlighting youth-centered manifestos and policies aimed at addressing their needs.
The survey revealed that criticism of the current NPP government’s handling of the economy also features prominently, reflecting growing dissatisfaction with the ruling party’s economic management. “This narrative could be helping to build a case for change among voters”.
However, the survey also highlighted strong criticism of Mahama’s past tenure, corruption, debate avoidance, and growing discussions on his infrastructure record compared to others. “These trigger mostly negative responses and comments and mentions”.
NPP Campaign Surges in Social Media Mentions
Furthermore, the IMANI PULSE survey indicated that the NPP has run a highly robust and active campaign, especially on social media, with about 15 mentions for every 10 related to the NDC.
According to the survey, the NPP has significantly ramped up its outreach efforts since announcing its running mate and securing the number 1 spot on the ballot.
Accordingly, hashtags linked to Bawumia’s campaign show strong positive sentiment, with over 78% of related commentary being favorable.
“Interestingly, when it came to endorsements advertisement polls for Bawumia, 65% of mentions carried negative sentiments. These focus on candidate Bawumia’s chances of winning the election and how people feel about it. This trend is noteworthy because there are generally positive sentiments on most of the mentions attributed to the keywords on the side of candidate Bawumia.
“Additionally, there are mentions of protests and demands for voter roll audits by the opposition, which could be impacting public perception of the electoral process and, by extension, Bawumia’s campaign”.
IMANI Africa
However, mentions of Bawumia’s activities show efforts to appeal to diverse voter demographics across regions and religious groups.
According to the survey, Dr. Bawumia’s vision for Ghana generates about 6% of online commentary featuring his name, with an impressive 82% of sentiments being positive.
IMANI Africa indicated that this indicates that his vision resonates well with supporters on social media, who amplify it positively. “This confirmed that about 40% of commentary expressed admiration for Dr. Bawumia’s campaign promises while a staggering 49% were neutral and 9% disgusted”.
IMANI Africa noted that Bawumia’s launch of initiatives like the CitizenApp and SMART Bus reflects a focus on technology and improved public service, appealing to tech-savvy voters.
The survey also suggested that strong party support and calls for backing from members are crucial for mobilizing the base.
According to the survey, Bawumia’s extensive tours have energized supporters and garnered positive reactions on social media. “The emphasis on Coverage of Ghana’s digital initiatives seems to create a positive buzz around candidate Bawumia”
Bawumia’s activities across regions and religious groups, along with meetings with chiefs and tribal elders, show a strategic effort to engage a diverse voter base according to the survey.
However, the survey revealed that significant economic concerns, particularly the cedi’s depreciation against the dollar have fueled negative perceptions of the NPP.
The survey suggested that protests over illegal mining (galamsey) and ongoing corruption allegations against NPP leadership have also undermined Dr. Bawumia’s message.
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