Mussa Dankwah, the Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, has emphasized the significant role that ethnicity and religion will play in shaping voter behavior in the December 2024 elections.
These factors, although not dominant, still hold measurable sway in specific regions.
According to Dankwah, in the Ashanti Region, encompassing all 47 constituencies, the influence of religion on voter decisions is estimated at 1%, with ethnicity holding an equal influence of 1%.
He indicated that in the Greater Accra Region, religion is projected to influence 2% of voters, matching the 2% influence seen in the Northern Region.
“The data shows that in the Greater, 78% of those who will be influenced by religion are Christians while 15% are Muslims. In the Northern region, those who will be influenced most by religion are Muslims, 84%, and Christians, 14%.
“In the constituencies on GAR polled, 88% of the respondents were Christians compared to 10% who were Muslims. In the Northern region constituencies, Muslims were 73% and Christians were 23%”.
Mussa Dankwah
Mussa Dankwah further observed that in the Eastern Region, constituencies such as Asuogyaman, Ayensuano, Suhum, Nsawam Adoagyiri, and Asene/Manso/Akroso show minimal influence of religion on voter decisions, at just 1%.
He noted that ethnicity has no measurable impact in these areas, with its influence recorded at 0%.
However, he emphasized that economic issues, particularly the controversial E-Levy and proposed betting taxes, hold far greater significance for voters in this region than socio-cultural factors like religion and ethnicity.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah further elaborated that among voters in Greater Accra constituencies surveyed, religion plays a significant role for a subset of the electorate.
According to him, of those who identified religion as the most important factor influencing their voting decisions, 56% were sympathizers of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), while 27% aligned with the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
Additionally, Dankwah noted that 5% of respondents were floating voters with no fixed party allegiance, and 12% chose not to disclose their political affiliations.
Dankwah Shares Insights on Northern Voter Trends
Furthermore, Mussa Dankwah revealed that in the Northern Region constituencies, among those who identified religion as the most important factor influencing their voting decisions, 48% were supporters of the NPP while 40% aligned with the NDC.
He stated that an additional 7% were floating voters with no fixed political allegiance, and 5% declined to disclose their party affiliation.
“This data suggests that DMB will benefit from some Muslims voting for him for his religion and John is expected to get votes from NPP voters because of his religion. The question is about the size of these voting blocs.
Elections-Vote Casting
“Ashanti region: NPP voters between 18-45 years, are splitting their votes between Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, Alan Kyerematen, and Nana Kwame Bediako. 45+ years, Dr. Bawumis and Alan Kyerematen. Insight from a household in Ejisu”.
Mussa Dankwah
He also indicated that across Ghana, the economy ranks as the most important issue for voters in all regions except the Ashanti Region, where it is surpassed by manifesto promises.
Dankwah stated that notably, education consistently ranks fourth in importance across key regions, reflecting a relatively lower priority compared to economic concerns, healthcare, and other pressing issues.
In the Ashanti Region, the prominence of manifesto promises indicates that voters may be more influenced by specific commitments and detailed proposals from political parties.
Meanwhile, the general dominance of the economy underscores the widespread impact of financial stability and livelihoods on voter decision-making nationwide.
Accordingly, Dankwah remarked that voters have become more independent in their decision-making and are no longer easily influenced by social media personalities or external figures.
With this shift, he emphasized that voters now rely on their own judgment and critical thinking.
As a result, he advised politicians to reconsider their strategies and avoid wasting resources on influencer-driven campaigns.
