Dr. Theo Acheampong, a political risk analyst, has pointed out that there is a common belief that winning Greater Accra automatically leads to winning national elections.
While he acknowledged that Greater Accra is an important barometer reflecting the political mood of the country, he emphasized that it does not always predict the overall outcome.
According to Acheampong, electoral data indicates that victories in other regions can significantly impact the final results, showing that the dynamics of Ghana’s elections are more complex than simply winning in Accra.
“The basic premise of the presidential elections is that the whole country is one constituency. In other words, every man or woman has one vote irrespective of where it is cast, whether in my beloved Ajumako or Zabzugu.
“Nevertheless, where you get your votes matter a lot despite being one man, one vote, especially in the presidential. It also matters for campaign strategy”.
Dr. Theo Acheampong
Acheampong further explained that the total winning margin, which represents the absolute difference in the number of valid votes cast for Party A and Party B, shows a significant regional variation in the 2020 presidential election.
He noted that in the Ashanti region, the NPP’s margin over the NDC was 1.14 million votes, averaging a 44% lead.
Acheampong indicated that in contrast, Greater Accra saw a much narrower margin of 71,308 votes, or approximately 7% in favor of the NDC.
This disparity, he asserted, illustrates how different regions can influence the overall election outcome.
According to Acheampong, the NPP’s winning margin of 1.14 million votes in the Ashanti region in 2020 was nearly equivalent to the total combined valid votes of both the NPP and NDC in the Central Region (1.13 million).
He noted that it was also slightly less than the combined votes of the two parties in the Eastern Region, which totaled 1.21 million. “This is the reason why the NPP and NDC have spent the last few days actively campaigning in Ashanti”.
Acheampong Highlights Regional Voting Patterns, Impact on Election Results
Furthermore, Dr. Theo Acheampong highlighted that there is a much broader geographical spread of the winning votes in the Ashanti region.
He indicated that in certain constituencies, the NPP led by as much as 70,000 votes, while the NDC saw margins of up to 20,000 votes in others.
He noted that in contrast, Greater Accra presented a more evenly divided scenario, with constituencies largely split between the two major parties, although the NDC maintained a slight overall lead.
This distribution, Acheamong noted, shows how the regional voting patterns contribute to the overall dynamics of the election results.
“The dispersion is also tighter in Greater Accra, especially bellwether constituencies such as Krowor and Ledzokuku. Remember, the margin of winning counts on the road to JUBILEE HOUSE”.
Dr. Theo Acheampong
Acheampong also asserted that it is yet to be determined whether voters in the two largest regions, Ashanti and Greater Accra, will turn out to vote on Saturday, 7th December 2024.
He pointed out that factors such as voter apathy or other reasons could influence their decision to either participate in the election or abstain.
The level of voter turnout in these key regions, he noted, will play a significant role in shaping the outcome of the election, making it crucial to observe how these voters respond on the day.
Acheampong also pointed out that only 38 out of the 275 constituencies have more than 100,000 registered voters.
These constituencies are distributed as follows: three in the Western Region, one in Bono, one in Bono East, one in the Northern Region, two in the Central Region, two in the Volta Region, seven in Ashanti, and 21 in Greater Accra.
He noted that in total, these constituencies account for 4.98 million voters, representing 27% of the total voter roll. “These constituencies could change the poll outcome, especially given the significant proportion in Greater Accra”.
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