A recent exit poll by Global InfoAnalytics from the 2024 elections in the swing regions of Greater Accra, Central, and Western has indicated that intensified campaign activities by political parties over the past three months had minimal impact on voter decisions.
The poll revealed that 84% of voters had already made their choice six months before the election, aligning with pre-election predictions. Only 5% made their decision within the final month, while 3% decided in the last week leading up to the vote.
On the issue of vote buying, the poll found that 24% of voters witnessed some form of vote-buying activity, with 38% of them admitting to personally receiving such inducements.
“The poll also revealed 56% of the inducement came from NPP, 23% from NDC, 15% admitted taken the inducement from both parties and 6% said they got their inducement from other parties.
“The exit poll shows that JDM won the three regions with 58%, DMB, 34%, and other 8%. However, in the 2020 elections, the poll shows that the race was a dead heat between JDM and Nana Addo at 49%.1% and 49.2% a piece”.
Global InfoAnalytics
Global InfoAnalytics highlighted that, contrary to claims suggesting the NPP lost the election due to low voter turnout among their supporters, the poll revealed a different trend.
The poll showed that only 63% of voters who supported Nana Addo in 2020 voted for DMB in 2024. The data also indicated that nearly 29% of Nana Addo’s 2020 voters switched their support to the main opposition leader, John Mahama.
Further analysis of the data revealed that 4% of NPP voters from 2020 shifted their allegiance, while 76% of NDC voters who initially backed Nana Addo returned to vote for Mahama.
Additionally, 48% of floating voters who had supported Nana Addo in 2020 also switched to Mahama.
The poll also showed that 36% of NPP voters who supported John Mahama in 2020 voted for him again, while 95% of NDC voters maintained their support for him. “Overall, 83% of NPP voters voted for DMB, 13% voted for JDM and 4% voted for other candidates”.
Global InfoAnalytics reported that, for John Mahama, 88% of NDC voters cast their ballots in his favor, while 8% chose Dr. Bawumia, and 3% supported other candidates.
The poll also revealed that 65% of floating voters backed John Mahama, with Dr. Bawumia receiving only 23%, and 12% opting for other candidates.
Poll Shows Mahama Leads Across Groups
Furthermore, the poll also indicated that John Mahama secured support across all religious groups. Among Christians, Mahama received 58% of the vote, while Dr. Bawumia garnered 36%. Among Muslims, Mahama earned 60%, with Bawumia receiving 33%.
Mahama led in all ethnic groups, except for the Gur, where Bawumia won with 50% compared to Mahama’s 45%. The Mande ethnic group was evenly split, with both candidates receiving 44%.
Additionally, the poll showed that among voters who decided over a year ago, 60% supported John Mahama, while 34% backed Dr. Bawumia.
“For those who decided in the last six months, 55% voted for John Mahama and 33% for Dr. Bawumia. For those in the last three months, John Mahama was 51% and Dr. Bawumia 36%. For those who decided in the last month, John Mahama 48%, and Dr. Bawumia, 38%.
“However, for those who decided in the last week, John Mahama 50% and Dr. Bawumia 35%, clear evidence that in the last days of the campaign, Dr. Bawumia’s decline in the polls accelerated”.
Global InfoAnalytics
The poll also revealed that John Mahama dominated among voters whose primary concern was the economy and who held Junior High School (JHS) qualifications, securing 62% compared to Dr. Bawumia’s 32%.
Among those with Senior High School (SHS) qualifications, Mahama led with 64% to 29%, and among tertiary-educated voters, he garnered 63% to Bawumia’s 30%.
Even among those without any formal education, Mahama received 63%, while Bawumia had 31%.
However, the race was much closer among voters for whom education was a key issue, highlighting Dr. Bawumia’s strength in this area.
Among JHS holders, the contest was nearly tied, with Mahama at 48% and Bawumia at 47%.
Among those who may have benefitted from the Free Education Policy and those at the tertiary level, where the focus is on quality, Mahama extended his lead, receiving 51% compared to Bawumia’s 43%. “Among those without a formal qualification, the story is the same as won 52% and Dr. Bawumia 41%”.
Mahama Leads Among Induced Voters
Moreover, the poll revealed that among voters who reported receiving inducements from political parties, 55% voted for John Mahama, while 35% supported Dr. Bawumia.
Global InforAnalytics noted that in contrast, among those who did not receive any inducement, Mahama secured 66% of the vote, and Bawumia received 25%.
“On the return on investment in the inducement business, the poll shows that 67% of voters who received inducement from NDC voted for John Mahama while 28% voted for Dr. Bawumia.
“For those who received it from the NPP, 54% voted for John Mahama while 41% voted for Dr. Bawumia”.
Global InfoAnalytics
Global InfoAnalytics noted that among voters who received inducements from other parties and independent candidates, John Mahama and Dr. Bawumia were tied, each securing 34%.
However, among those who accepted inducements from both major parties, Mahama received 53%, while Bawumia garnered 25%.
