A surge in tactical voting is threatening to disrupt Reform UK’s prospects in Thursday’s crucial local elections, with some Conservative voters now pledging support to Labour or the Liberal Democrats, campaigners say.
This rising trend could significantly impact the high-stakes Runcorn and Helsby byelection, where Nigel Farage’s Reform party is seen as the frontrunner to overturn a Labour majority of nearly 15,000 votes. Such a result would mark a major setback for Labour leader Keir Starmer.
The phenomenon of strategic voting is also being reported in the contest for the new mayoralty of Hull and East Yorkshire. Although polls show the Reform candidate in the lead, the Liberal Democrats are mounting a determined push to position themselves as the main opposition force.
Should Reform fall short in either race, it would deal a blow to Farage’s party at a time when the results of the byelection and six mayoral contests are due to be declared overnight Thursday. These early results are expected to shape media narratives before the outcomes of 24 contested councils across England are known.
Voters appear increasingly adept at casting their ballots tactically. In the 2024 general election, many Labour, Lib Dem, and Green voters backed whichever party had the best shot at defeating the Conservatives in their area. Now, the rise of Reform UK, which has consistently led national opinion polls, seems to be accelerating this strategic voting trend.
Alleged Reform UK, Conservative Alliance Fuels Tactical Voting
Labour and Lib Dem officials note that some voters are also reacting to speculation about a possible alliance between the Conservatives and Reform. In the Runcorn byelection, a direct Reform-Labour face-off, campaigners report receiving pledges of support from not only Lib Dem and Green voters, but also some disillusioned Conservative supporters aiming to block a Reform win.
Labour has targeted Frodsham and Helsby, more affluent areas near Chester with solid Conservative bases, aiming to sway moderate Tories uneasy with Farage’s politics. “A big part of our operation has been to try to squeeze the Tory vote there,” a Labour source stated. “It is happening, but to what extent remains to be seen.”
In Hull and East Yorkshire, the Liberal Democrats are capitalizing on their recent polling position to convince Labour and Green supporters that they are the only viable alternative to Reform. Their campaign is highly localized, with targeted messaging down to the postcode level.
“We’re focusing really hard on an almost postcode-by-postcode campaign in places where we think there is a stop Reform vote. For a lot of voters, Reform are so far off the deep end that it motivates people. They’re less interested in policies, it’s more: ‘Our number one priority is to stop Reform, if you can do that we’ll vote for you.’”
Lib Dem official
The message appears to be resonating even with traditionally Conservative voters in areas like East Riding.
“In Hull, there are lots of Labour and Green voters who are terrified of Reform. In East Riding, what you might call the softer Conservatives are also increasingly saying: ‘My goodness, I can’t let Reform win.’ Something has happened in the last 10 days. It feels like a lot of voters are pivoting quite hard into what you could call a ‘stop Reform coalition.’”
Lib Dem official
Farage has publicly tempered expectations, citing Reform UK’s limited experience and lack of grassroots campaign infrastructure compared to Labour, particularly in Runcorn.
Despite this, rival campaigners acknowledge that Reform has been active on the ground, fielding teams for door-to-door canvassing and spending heavily on leaflets and digital ads.
The outcomes in Runcorn and across the mayoral and council races will offer early clues about the effectiveness of Reform’s campaign strategy — and the strength of what appears to be a growing, informal anti-Reform voting bloc.
While a combined Conservative-Reform vote share currently stands above 45%, opposing strategists believe that any formal alliance between the two parties would likely drive even more voters into tactical voting behavior.
